The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Thursday, June 14, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Nardini; 4-Lippy
Forecast: Lippy has the benefit of a race over the track – a pleasing runner-up performance in a better than average race for the level – and any kind of forward move should land her in the winner’s circle, unless a hot first-timer shows up. Nardini could be just that; she’s a $160,000 daughter of Acclamation from a capable outfit with a recent 47 3/5 seconds half mile drill that was the second fastest of 39 for the day. We’ll prefer Lippy on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Dr. Troutman; 4-Hot American; 8-Souter
Forecast: The second race is a stronger than par starter’s allowance turf miler with a number of possibilities. Dr. Troutman makes a monumental trainer switch and is being protected in his first-off-the-claim for Aguirre, who employs his go-to-rider Pereira. With a fresh lease on life, the son of Vronsky may improve a ton, especially if held up a bit early and allowed to run late. Hot American won at first asking and then verified that good effort with a solid third place finish in a similar starter’s race last month. He’s a strong fit on numbers and should be dangerous in the final furlong. Souter had a nice prep down the hill in his first outing in 15 months, retains Talamo, and should improve with this stretch-out in trip. The Glatt-trained gelding will need some help up front, but with a decent pace to chase he could be heard from late. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Dr. Troutman.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Naturalborn Singer; 10-Takahiro’s Dream
Forecast: This wide open maiden juvenile fillies sprint is borderline inscrutable, but two that you should include in your rolling exotics are second-time starters Naturalborn Singer and Takahiro’s Dream. The former finished okay to be fourth in her debut and will appreciate today’s extra half furlong, while the latter should have enough early speed to secure a favorable stalking position from her outside draw. Best advice is to spread as deeply as you can afford to.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Treasure Hunter; 6-Caray
Forecast: We’ll double the fourth race, a starter’s allowance $30,000. Caray is nicely drawn outside and should settle into a good stalking spot and have every chance. We’ll give him a very slight edge on top over Treasure Hunter, who faded readily down the hill in his most recent start but should stick much better with the return to the main track. He could be the quickest of the field and get brave if he can shake loose early
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-Fire Rooster; 9-Jump the Tracks
Forecast: Jump the Tracks has consistently earned speed figures that are better than par for this modest maiden claiming level and clearly looks best of a weak lot. He should be quick enough to get over from his outside draw and gain a favorable stalking spot and go on from there. Second-timer starter Fire Rooster, now in the Cerin barn, chased straight maidens down the hill in his debut in April and wasn’t totally embarrassed. If he can run at all, this is the place to show it. We’re expecting the winner to be one or the other, so both should be included in rolling exotic play.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Go On Mary; 3-Goseecal
Forecast: Let’s boil down this Hillside turf sprint to two main contenders. Go On Mary, freshened since January, has run well over this course in the past and has been training very well for her return at San Luis Rey Downs for hot trainer O’Neill. Prat, who knows her well, stays aboard and should have this daughter of Broken Vow on or near the lead throughout. Goseecal is the most dangerous of the closers, and with rising numbers the Cerin-trained filly appears strictly the one to beat.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Muchos Besos; 4-Shackleford Banks; 7-Gonna Fly Now
Forecast: Muchos Besos is an admirable old pro, and this return to the main track combined with a favorable inside draw may allow this nine-year-old gelding to return to winning form. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, we can count on him to fire his best shot. Shackleford Banks is better than his last shows and with some help up front should be heard from in the final furlong. Gonna Fly Now is a first time Baltas, and that angle alone makes him a contender. We’ll use all three in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Muchos Besos on top.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sunday Prophet; 3-Gia Lula; 8-Into Glamour
Forecast: Sunday Prophet adds blinkers in her second start since joining the Baltas barn and won’t need to improve much to earn her diploma in a modest maiden claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. The “other” Baltas, Into Glamour, shows up for a tag for the first time and seems likely to improve. Look for her to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Gia Lula ran well at this level two runs back in a Hillside turf sprint and this stretch out in trip shouldn’t be an issue. She ran well two-turning on turf as a two-year-old last summer at Del Mar and this third start off a layoff should be her best.