Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Gulfstream Park on March 31st, 2018

Below is the late Pick 4 ticket for Florida Derby Day at Gulfstream Park. As always the ticket is $20 or less.

Race 11

Stormy Victoria (#3, 4-1) is the longer price of the Christophe Clement pair in here and has a recency edge over stablemate Lull. This mare appears to be better than ever and sports a strong record over the Gulfstream Park Turf.

On Leave (#10, 3-1) is strictly the horse to beat as she defeated Stormy Victoria in her last start. She is 4 for 6 at a mile and appreciates firm ground. The only drawback is her post position, but she is very dangerous if able to work out a trip.

Grizzel (#6, 10-1) likely needed her last race and was forced to close into a slow early pace. She should build off that effort and could be a late threat with more speed signed on this time around.

Lull (#2, 5-2) may have the most upside in the field while making her first start as a four-year-old. Her versatility should allow her to sit a nice trip if she is fully cranked up off of a layoff.

Race 12

Cache (#4, 8-1) was very impressive breaking maiden before jumping to stakes company in her first try against winners. She was buried on the inside for most of the race and only missed second by a little over 2 lengths. She makes her first start around two turns and is bred top and bottom to relish the distance, while some of her main competitors may falter with the increased distance. This $500,000 purchase looks primed for a breakout performance in a race lacking star power.

Race 13

Hi Happy (#3, 3-1) makes his second start off a layoff and his second start in the Todd Pletcher barn. He ran very well last time off the bench at a distance that was shorter than he prefers. He should sit right behind the speed and is the horse to beat while returning to his best distance at 1 1/2 miles.

Sadler’s Joy (#8, 2-1) is a deserving favorite and has become very consistent at this distance. He has two wins and a second in three tries at Gulfstream Park. He is a bit pace dependent however; and there does not appear to be an abundance of speed signed on in this spot.

Race 14

Catholic Boy (#6, 7-2) has improved in every start based on numbers and was compromised by a slow pace last time out in the Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was forced to make a move early in the race, which resulted in him hanging at the wire. This race appears to have more speed in it, which should result in a closing kick that resembles his Remsen win. Catholic Boy is the top pick on the eve of Easter.

Audible (#8, 9-5) reminds me a lot of Stellar Wind. He is not an impressive work horse and has to be asked for much of the race in the afternoon, but when the jockey asks, he responds. If he runs to his recent lackluster works then he is vulnerable, but a repeat of his Holy Bull effort could make him awfully tough on the road to Kentucky.

Mississippi (#9, 12-1) hung in tough with recent Louisiana Derby winner Noble Indy in his first start against winners. He disappointed as the favorite last time out, but he should sit a nice trip right behind the speed and is a threat if he improves with the addition of blinkers.

Promises Fulfilled (#4, 3-1) must prove that his Fountain of Youth win was not a fluke, but he is dangerous on the lead if Strike Power takes back once again. He got stronger as the race went on and should be able to handle the increase in distance in here.

$0.50 Pick 4 Ticket: 2,3,6,10 – 4 – 3,8 – 4,6,8,9   = $16

-Padraic Manocchio


Leverage Plays: Late Pick 4 Analysis at Gulfstream Park on March 31st, 2018


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