Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Overnight Xpress for August 26, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

 

DEL MAR

Saturday, August 26, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Real Big Deal; 6-Que Chistoso

Forecast: Real Big Deal has a healthy pattern and seems primed to produce another forward move. Both of his races over the Del Mar main track have been good and he has back numbers that would bury this field if repeated. Conversely, Que Chistoso was claimed for $35,000 two races back and today shows up for $14,000, not terribly inspiring for the 2-1 morning line favorite. He’s clearly good enough off his best race but the Hess-trained gelding certainly seems vulnerable.

Video Analysis

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 2:35 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Mama’s Sugar; 2-Magical Lucy

Forecast: The contention is drawn inside with Magical Lucy offering value at 6-1 on the morning line. She switches from turf to dirt, shortens from a mile to five and one-half furlongs, and drops to her lowest level ever. She’s won over this track and distance in the past and should have every chance from a stalking position. Mama’s Sugar got away with soft fractions and still blew a three-length lead in mid-stretch in her recent comeback. She might have needed the race and could be fitter today but will need to break well from the rail to have her best chance.

Video Analysis

 

​​RACE 3: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Sheza Chattykat; 2-Swirling; 5-G Q Covergirl

Forecast: Swirling won her debut in a maiden $50,000 claimer down the Hillside course at Santa Anita and returns almost three months later protected following a steady, solid recent series of drills. She looks primed for another huge effort and with good racing luck might produce a winning move from somewhere in mid-pack. She offers plenty of value if you can close to her 8-1 morning line. Sheza Chattykat will take them as far as she can from the rail and at this abbreviated five furlong distance could get very brave if she can shake loose early. G Q Covergirl flunked her route test but returns to sprinting and may return to top form. She continues to impress in the morning and switches to one of D’Amato’s go-to riders, Maldonado.

Video Analysis

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 3:40 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  3-Saint Tropez; 4-Secret Spice; 5-High Drama; 8-True Royalty

Forecast: This a highly-contentious maiden special weight sprint for juvenile fillies requiring a spread. True Royalty has the benefit of an excellent runner-up effort over the track in a race that earned a sharp speed figure. She’s trained well since so it will take a fairly decent filly to beat her. The other main players are first-time starters with credentials. Saint Tropez breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds at the Barretts March Sale and boasts a strong series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for a barn that does well with debut runners. High Drama acts like a promising sort for Baffert – her most recent workout was quite good – and as a daughter of Tapit could develop into a real good one. Secret Spice is worth including as well; she looked very good in a 10 1/5 breeze at the Timonium Sale in May (where she brought $125,000) while appearing to have the kind of speed that early winners usually have.

 Video Analysis

 

RACE 5: Post 4:10 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Time for Cioppino; 4-Oh Man; 6-Lucky Romano; 8-Luke’s On Fire

Forecast: This $50,000 maiden claiming sprint for state-bred juveniles is another open affair with several possibilities. Oh Man, first off the claim for Baltas (superb 31% with a flat-bet profit with this angle) was disappointing when a well-beaten second in a similar event last month but can be counted on to produce a forward move for his new connections. He’s yet to show much late punch in his races but for this barn that might change. Time for Cioppino surfaces in a claimer for the first and the easier company makes him a solid threat. His numbers aren’t particularly fast but at least they’re slowly moving in the right direction. Lucky Romano, exiting the same race as Oh Man, didn’t break in his debut and was never a factor but adds blinkers and switches to Bejarano so we’re expecting a forward move. If you can afford it, toss in Luke’s On Fire as well. He previewed fairly well at the Barretts May Sale (breezed a furlong in 10 2/5 seconds) and clearly won’t have to be a world beater to act with these.

Video Analysis

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Conquest Typhoon; 4-Oregon; 6-Skelton Pass; 7-Eckersley

Forecast: Conquest Typhoon ran very well when second to the vastly improved Chicago Style in a mini-marathon two weeks ago and today drops back to a flat mile. He’s 4-for-7 lifetime at this exact distance and zero-for-18 at any other trip. Prat stays aboard and should have this Miller-trained gelding in a good stalking position throughout. Skelton Pass clearly is the controlling speed; he was forced to go too fast too early in his most recent outing (his first in blinkers) but hung on very well and could take this group a very long way if he’s allowed to slow down just a little bit during the early stages. Oregon has won his last pair with complete authority and although tackling tougher could easily be this good, while Eckersley also was visually pleasing in a recent win over this course and can be dangerous from well off the pace or from a stalking position. Let’s include all four in our rolling exotics and then come back and press with extra tickets keying Conquest Typhoon.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 7: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Gormley; 4-Gato Del Oro; Klimt

Forecast: Gato Del Oro beat older horses over this track and distance in his last start and earned a number that says he can continue his winning ways despite moving into stakes competition. The Baltas-trained colt has plenty of speed and certainly doesn’t need the lead to win, so Bejarano can play it by ear. If a speed duel develops – and it could – Gormley might be able to take back and then produce the last run. Hard to say what the addition of blinkers will do to his style, but if the son of Malibu Moon switches off early, as he’s been doing in recent a.m. drills, he could mow them all down in the final furlong. Klimt is a perfect two-for-two over the Del Mar main track including last year’s Del Mar Futurity-G1 and recent works indicate he’s right on edge. It’s possible he’s more effective around one turn but will get a chance to prove otherwise. We’ll prefer Gato Del Oro on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

Video Analysis

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 5:40 PT.  Grade: B-

Use:  2-Run Like Rhett; 5-Popyhowuspelcupcak; 9-Irish Goodbye

Forecast: Here’s another grass grab bag, this one for starter allowance runners. Irish Goodbye just missed in a photo while more than three lengths clear of the rest in a recent $40,000 claimer and a repeat of that performance today should be good enough. From his extreme outside post, he’ll likely take back and then produce one late kick. Popyhowuspelcupcak performed well vs. similar when a fast-finishing second over this course last month and gets a bit more ground to work with today. Bejarano stays aboard for Miller. Run Like Rhett was a race-shape aided second in his first try on turf in an effort might have flattered him a bit. Still, he’s worth including on a ticket or two.

Video Analysis

 

RACE 9: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Moe Candy; 7-Calculator; 10-Giant Expectations

Forecast: With the scratching of Danzing Candy this race takes on a whole different look. Without much early speed in the field, it’ll be interesting to see which horse is ridden aggressively from the gate to secure a favorable position (and perhaps the lead). Moe Candy was fanned very wide by a loose horse (Drefong) at a critical stage in the Crosby S.-G1 and under the circumstance did well to finish as close as he did. He should be forwardly placed from the rail and have every chance with his best effort. Calculator exits a powerful overnight allowance race on turf and should be just as effective if not more so with the turn back to a sprint and the switch to dirt. Giant Expectations is another that seems to prefer one corner; he continues to impress in the morning and projects to draft into a lovely pace-prompting spot outside.

Video Analysis

 

 RACE 10: Post 5:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Bold Papa; 4-Tatar; 8-Well Developed

Forecast: Bold Papa had a nightmarish trip vs. similar when fourth as the favorite over this course last month and with better luck today could produce a winning late kick. He’s not very handy and probably will appreciate a clear run outside. Tatar set suicidal splits but hung on bravely to be second in the same race Bold Papa exits and if he can slow down just a bit today he could take this field a very long way. Well Developed is an Unusual Heat gelding finally making his debut and is doing so with a recent bullet six furlong workout on his resume. At 10-1 on the morning line he’s worth including somewhere.

Video Analysis

 

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SARATOGA

Saturday, August 26, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 11:35 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 5-Road to Meth; 6-High North; 8-Good Magic

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:08 ET. Grade: B

Use: 1-War Bond; 2-Memories of Peter; 3-Surprise Twist

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RACE 3: Post 12:41 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Paradise Island; 8-Strike Me Down; 10-Neepawa

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:14 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Ostrelenka; 5-Angry Moon; 6-Shaft of Light

​RACE 5: Post 1:48 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Sycamore Lane; 4-Cloontia; 8-Ray’s the Bar

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:23 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-Songbird

​​RACE 7: Post 2:59 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Paulassilverlining; 4-By the Moon

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:35 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Takaful; 7-Coal Front; 9-American Anthem

RACE 9: Post 4:12 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 10-Drefong

 

RACE 10: Post 4:49 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Money Multiplier; 7-Idaho

RACE 11: Post 5:44 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Good Samaritan

 

RACE 12: Post 6:20 ET.  Grade: X

Single: 1-Lady Eli

RACE 13: Post 6:54 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Prognostication; 11-Herecomesyourman; 12-Wingman

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Overnight Xpress for August 26, 2017

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