Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 7, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.  

B=Solid Play.  

C=Least preferred, or pass.  

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, January 7, 2017

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Barbara Jo; 5-Jeanjeannie; 7-Lofty Cause

As this is penned, the track condition is unknown, though with another band of rain having arrived during the night it is certain to be considerably wet. The opener is an inscrutable maiden claimer for sophomore fillies; we’ll go three deep but without any degree of confidence. Jeanjeannie moves to the David Jacobson barn, switches to Kent Desormeaux, and will sprint for the first time in her fifth lifetime start. We’re expecting her to be a late threat. Barbara Jo is slow on numbers but she’s dropping to the bottom and has shown some early speed, so against this group she might get brave. Lofty Cause actually finished first in a similar race two runs back but was disqualified; she’s re-equipped with blinkers and will be part of the pace at least most of the way.

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 3-Back Beauty

​We’re listing Back Beauty as a default single in the second race, a bottom-of-the-barrel sprint for fillies and mares. She hits rock bottom after being claimed for $25,000 two runs back, so clearly trainer Matt Chew isn’t happy with the merchandise. However, her recent works are solid, so maybe she’s found her friends and will get her confidence back. At any rate, she’s 8/5 on the morning line and offers no value, so this certainly isn’t a race we plan on getting involved in.

 

RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

The Las Cienegas Stakes, originally carded for the Hillside Turf Course, will now be run on the main track. Only five entered, and with the late switch in surface there’s a strong possibility of a late scratch or two, rendering the race unplayable.

 

RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Divine Spark; 6-Party Gal; 7-Miss Ricochet

Maiden state-bred sophomore fillies sprint five and one-half furlongs in the fourth race, with Divine Spark the obvious favorite at 8/5 on the morning line. She certainly can win, but has burned money as the choice in her last pair and her speed figures have stagnated. However, In what appears to be a below par field for the level, the Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Lucky Pulpit really won’t have to improve much to win. Party Gal has done some good work in the morning for Phil D’Amato and should be plenty fit for a good effort first crack out of the box. Another debut runner, Miss Ricochet, has trained a bit better than the final times might indicate for Mark Glatt, whose newcomers often run better than they work. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth tossing in somewhere.

 

​​​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Kenzou’s Empire; 8-Empire Ruler; 9-Slasher

The fifth race is an extended sprint for maiden $40,000 3-year-olds. Slasher is a second-time starter from the Glatt barn that finished a reasonable fourth in a productive race at Del Mar and seems quite likely to produce a significant forward move with that effort behind him. This seven furlong trip looks perfect for his stalking style, and with a strong series of recent workouts the son of Include seems strictly the one to beat. Empire Ruler closed a gap to be a distant second in his debut at Los Alamitos last month and is another that has every right to improve. Kenzou’s Empire surfaces in a claimer for the first time after showing pretty much nothing in his first two outings vs. much tougher straight maiden foes. He’s a first-time gelding with winning connections, so he’s another we’ll be using in our rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: none

Pass/No Play

​​The sixth race, originally slated for six and one-half furlongs down the hill, has been transferred to the main track. There seems certain to be a number of late scratches. We’ll pass.

 

RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-American Anthem; 5-Gormley

American Anthem won at first asking like a quality colt and gives every indication that the longer they go, the better he’ll be. The Baffert-trained son of Bodemeister continues to impress in the a.m. and should have a lovely, ground-saving, pace-stalking trip from his inside post position. Gormley, the winner of the FrontRunner S.-G1 during the fall meeting, wants to show his speed and we suspect he’ll be allowed to do so after rating tactics accomplished nothing in the BC Juvenile. The son of Malibu Moon remains a top prospect and if he manages to establish a clear lead without undue pressure, he should be very hard to catch. Both should be used in rolling exotic play; we’ll give a very slight edge on top to American Anthem.

 

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Plane Lucky; 4-Skye Diamonds; 9-Calm the Seas

Calm the Seas is an extremely talented mare but has had many physical issues that have kept her out of training at various times during her career. In fact, she’s only had one prior start, an impressive maiden win here almost a year ago. Her recent workouts indicate she has all of her speed, so if she comes back as well as she left she should be able to handle this group. Let’s hope she can stay sound enough this time around to string a few races together. Plane Lucky is perfect (two-for-two) over the Santa Anita main track and looks like the quickest of the quick. Rafael Bejarano will try to hold her together in the final furlong. Skye Diamonds, first or second in seven of 10 career starts, will need to step it up in the speed figure department but she’s a trier and should at least land in the frame.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 11-Ring Weekend

The San Gabriel Stakes, a Grade 2 event over nine furlongs, is carded as the nightcap, and as of this writing remains on turf. Ring Weekend is the obvious top pick and logical rolling exotic single, extreme outside post and all. Winner of the Seabiscuit Handicap at Del Mar in November against a tougher group than he’s facing today, the Graham Motion-trained gelding packs a powerful late kick and with good racing luck should be along in time. If you can get close to his 5/2 morning line in the straight pool, take it.

GULFSTREAM PARK

Saturday, January 7, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C

Use: 3-E Z’s Mistress; 6-Misschief Maas; 8-Arch Legacy

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​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Piki Piki Girl; 8-Dressed in Heels; 12-Lasso the Lion

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RACE 3: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Bode’s Dream; 5-Wildcat Kate; 7-Sailor’s Valentine

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​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Kitten’s Cat; 5-Squadron; 7-Made You Look

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​RACE 5: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 7-Monaco

​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Secretary At War; 3-Creative Courage; 8-Mascarpone

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​​RACE 7: Post 3:01 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Ranger in Paradise; 3-Scarly Charly; 6-Tale of S’avali

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​​​RACE 8: Post 3:32 ET.  Grade:  B

Use: 3-Bogulator; 5-Interrogation; 6-Inflexibility

RACE 9: Post 4:03 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 1-Lady Alexandra; 4-Conquest Vivi; 5-Party Boat

RACE 10: Post: 4:34 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Sweetontheladies; 3-Talk Logistics; 5-Skyler’s Scramjet

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:05 ET.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Royal Chapeau; 8-Don’t Talk Back; 12-Synchronizing

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for Jan. 7, 2017

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