Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 24, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 24, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Harrovian; 4-Moonlight Blue

Moonlight Blue has rising speed figures, and if he produces another forward move in his second start off a layoff he’ll be tough to beat, the 14 pound raise in weights notwithstanding. Harrovian is a class dropper with numbers that are competitive and he could be the most dangerous of the closers. These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Tiz the Light: 3-Danuska’s My Girl

Tiz the Light has shown some talent in the morning for trainer Ron Ellis and looks like a live item first crack out of the box in a moderate maiden special weight sprint for fillies and mares. The rail is no bargain but at this extended sprint trip she might be able to produce the last run. Danuska’s My Girl is a first-timer from the Jerry Hollendorfer barn with a decent series of workouts on her resume. The daughter of Shackleford certainly is worth including. Let’s try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Tiz the Light.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Law Abidin Citizen; 5-Rockin Rudy

Law Abidin Citizen is improving with each start and earned a career top speed figure when an excellent second to Iliad in the San Vicente Stakes-G2 earlier this meeting. He’s back in the allowance ranks while trying turf for the first time, and if he handles the lawn – and he’s bred for it – the son of Twirling Candy should be along in time. Rockin Rudy is clearly the quickest of the quick and if he can establish the pace without undue pressure he may be hard to catch. He’s a second-off-a-layoff play for trainer Doug O’Neill, who has superior stats with this angle. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Law Abidin Citizen on top.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 2-Eddie’s First

Eddie’s First completely outclasses this field but there’s an obvious question of condition and he may not be one to trust. If the ex-classer has one good one left he’ll romp, but that’s not the kind of question you want to have to answer when you’re taking a short price. Use him as a no-value rolling exotic single if you must, or simply pass the race.

RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B

Single: 5-Gato Dolce

Gato Dolce is a first-off-the-claim play for trainer Mark Glatt, who has excellent stats with this angle, and looks quite capable of stepping forward for his new connections. He’s a first-time gelding with numbers that fit, and if he leaves cleanly today – he’s never been the best gate horse around – the son of Candy Ride should be able to handle this modest assignments. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X

Single: 5-David’s Memory

David’s Memory was disqualified out of a win vs. similar when drifting out in the stretch last month but if he can maintain a straight course today he can make amends. The lightly-raced son of Vronsky is back with jockey Rafael Bejarano, who won on him two races back and is quite familiar with the gelding’s quirks. A healthy work tab since raced for trainer Hector Palma gives every indication that a major effort is forthcoming. Let’s make him a rolling exotic single, but at 9/5 on the morning line there’s probably not much else we can do with him.

 

RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 4-Yavrig; 7-Amazing Lady; 8-Sid the Squid

The seventh race is a difficult restricted (nw-2) claiming sprint for fillies and mares and requires a spread. We’ll use three and hope that’s sufficient. Sid the Quid may be as good as any; the Art Sherman-trained filly takes a significant class drop and may have found her friends. She’s most effective when allowed to settle early and take hold late, and with a patient ride might produce the last run. Amazing Lady exits an open $6,250 dash and today tackles restricted $12,500 company, so she’s really not facing a tougher bunch. The daughter of Cindago has the kind of speed that could be dangerous against this group, so at 12-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.” Yavrig hasn’t been out since a solid runner-up effort in the mud in mid-January. If she shows up with one of her better efforts she’ll be a factor.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 8-Red Shelby

Red Shelby is a first-time starter from the clever Peter Miller barn with a steady series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs leading up to her racing debut. A year ago March she displayed intense speed when breezing a quarter mile in 21 1/5 seconds in the OBS Sale. That’s the kind of zip we’re expecting to see today, and in a moderate field of maiden special weight 3-year-old fillies, the daughter of Greatness might take control early and never look back. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​

GULFSTREAM PARK

Friday, March 24, 2017

 

​RACE 1: Post 12:35 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 6-Axtell; 7-Policy Portfolio

​​

​​RACE 2: Post 1:04 ET. Grade: X

Single: 2-My Johnny Be Good

​​​

RACE 3: Post 1:33 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 4-Luther D

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 ET. Grade: B

Use: 3-Stockyard; 5-Fire On Fire

​​

​RACE 5: Post 2:32 ET. Grade: C

Use: 2-Chatiment; 3-E Z’s Mistress; 5-Epic Drama

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B+

Single: 3-Golden Point

​​RACE 7: Post 3:35 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 5-Tipsy Kitten

​​

​​​RACE 8: Post 4:02 ET.  Grade: B

Single: 3-Gold Shark

RACE 9: Post 4:32 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Kimsley Kisses; 5-Savingtime

RACE 10: Post: 5:02 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Perfect Tay; 6-Class and Cash

 

RACE 11: Post: 5:32 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Mojo Rising; 3-More Alex

 

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies (SA, GP) for March 24, 2017

Jeff Siegel's Blog |