Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Analysis/Wagering Strategies for SA, GP, & GGF for Saturday, March 31, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Saturday March 31, 2018


RACE 1: Post 11:30 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Florida Cotton; 4-Noble Drama; 6-Sgtar Juancho

Video Analysis: click here


​​RACE 2: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Tiki Bar Queen; 8-Ballylin

Video Analysis: click here


​​RACE 3: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: C

Use: 3-Jaiden’s Best; 5-Solve; 6-Model Citizen

Video Analysis: click here


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:00 ET. Grade: B

Use:  3-Speed Franco; 4-Salmanazar

Video Analysis: click here


​​RACE 5: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Amertume; 3-Originator; 5-Got Stormy; 8-Best Performance

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B-

Use: 7-Second Illusion; 11-Remington Rose

Video Analysis: click here


​​​RACE 7: Post 2:30 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Special Trip; 5-Sweet Lady; 7-Legend Emma; 9-Style Ico

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:00 ET.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Irish War Cry

Forecast: click here


RACE 9: Post 3:34 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-Rhode Island; 5-C C Rider; 7-Art Collection

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​​RACE 10: Post 4:17 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 3-Weekend Hideaway

Video Analysis: click here


RACE 11: Post 4:49 ET.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Lull; 3-Stormy Victoria; 10-On Leave

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​​RACE 12: Post 5:26 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Take Charge Paula; 4-Cache

Forecast: click here


RACE 13: Post 6:00 ET.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Hi Happy; 8-Sadler’s Joy

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​​RACE 14: Post 6:36 ET.  Grade: B

Use: 6-Catholic Boy; 8-Audible

Video Analysis: click here




Saturday March 31, 2018


RACE 1: Post 12:15 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Rainbow North; 3-Black Tie Event; 5-Li’l Chieftain

Video Analysis: click here


​​RACE 2: Post 12:45 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-John Paul’s Bet; 4-Mr. Jay D

Video Analysis: click here


​​RACE 3: Post 1:15 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Brite Echo; 4-Ultimate Game

Video Analysis: click here


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:53 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Enayat Alsalam; 4-Blessed Union

Video Analysis: click here


​​RACE 5: Post 2:24 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Bridal Arch; 5-Winter’s Nest; 7-Esperanza Mobile

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:56 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Princess Leia; 3-Starring Role

Video Analysis: click here


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:34 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 3-Hekili Storm; 5-Karma King

Video Analysis: click here


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:13 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Syntax; 9-Bird is the Word; 10-Full of Luck

Video Analysis: click here


RACE 9: Post 4:43 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 2-Chazelle

Video Analysis: click here




Saturday, March 31, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Twirling Tiger; 2-Rick’s Dream; 5-Jay Makes Us Laugh

Forecast: Today’s opener is a somewhat chaotic affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three-deep but if you need to include a few more, go right ahead.  Rick’s Dream is winless in six starts over the Santa Anita main track, was a voided claim two races back, and was most recently a well-beaten third as the favorite vs. similar foes earlier this month.  However, he has shown the ability to pass horses and in a race in which the speed appears suspect, the Palma-trained gelding might be able to produce the last run.  We’ll put him on top but certainly not with any great deal of confidence.  Twirling Tiger has been away for more than a year and must leave from the rail, but Carava has good stats with layoff runners and this 5-year-old gelding has won off a long vacatiopn in the past.  Pedroza takes the call and most likely will let him roll from the start.  Jay Makes Us Laugh tackles easier today and probably is the speed of the speed.  His runaway win three races back charts very well here and Elliott, who was aboard that day, returns.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Crown the Kitten; 8-Secreto Primero

Forecast:  Crown the Kitten hasn’t won in awhile but none of these have.  Today the Desormeaux-trained gelding lands an ideal spot in a race restricted to horses which have gone winless since this very date in 2017.  His recent form is solid and from the rail he should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip.  However, he’s zero-for-nine lifetime over the local lawn and always has preferred to run second or third rather than win.  We’ll use the son of Kitten’s Joy in our rolling exotics but also include Secreto Primero, who ran extremely well the last time he two-turned on grass five races back.  If he can secure a decent trip from his outside draw, the son of First Samurai could regain his winning form.  Let’s give Secreto Primero a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Vegas Itch; 5-Williston Dude; 7-Defense Minister

Forecast:  Bottom rung maiden-claiming older horses compete over a distance of ground in the third race, an inscrutable affair that might be best left alone.  We’ll try to get by using three in our rolling exotics.  Defense Minister has started only twice, so logically he has the most room for improvement.  The Hollendorfer-trained colt has yet to display any tactical speed but his numbers are rising, Roman stays aboard, and the son of Smart Strike should be running on strongly late.  We’ll put him on top by default.  Vegas Itch is a fit on figures and just finished seven lengths clear of Defense Minister in a similar spot earlier this month.  He’s had eight chances but his most recent outing earned a career top speed figure and not much better will be needed to beat this field.  Williston Dude, second off the claim for Glatt, finished far back as the favorite in a recent sprint but stretches out today and has a look with a repeat of his race before last.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use:  1-Dr. Dorr; 2-Air Vice Marshall

Forecast: Dr. Dorr earned a very strong (and career top) speed figure when winning a fast allowance sprint over an off track earlier this month and had the form franked when runner-up Ten Blessings came back to win smartly yesterday.  He finished nowhere in his only prior two-turn event but looks like a much better type now, and his pedigree certainly okay’s the stretch out in trip.  Air Vice Marshall is a solid contender as well; the O’Neill-trained son of War Front has two good races here this meeting, though on pure numbers he’s somewhat slower than his main rival.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top going to Dr. Dorr.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 7-International Diva; 9-Into Glamour; 11-Tiz Toffee

Forecast: International Diva exits a high-priced maiden claimer and today tackles maiden special weight company.  Normally on this circuit at this time on the calendar this is a class hike that is tough to overcome, but in a below par field for the level this D’Amato-trained import, with a race under her belt combined with the turn back in trip, looks capable of producing a winning late kick.  There’s value here at 6-1 on the morning line if you can get it.  Into Glamour displayed some ability last November when she finished a good second in a two-turn turf miler at Del Mar and before that was fourth, beaten less than two lengths, over this course and distance the previous month.  She could come back a better type for Baltas and her work tab indicates she’ll be fit and ready.  Tiz Toffee ran quite well in a pair of races at Keeneland and Fair Grounds, respectively, last year and is actually a lower price (7/2) on the morning line than the other D’Amato entrant.  She shows a 59 3/5 workout on March 6 that catches the eye and has a pedigree that should allow her to handle grass.  Let’s include all three in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying International Diva on top.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Fire to the Wire; 4-Liberty Jack

Forecast:  This restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint doesn’t have much in it, so we’ll try to survive and advance using just two.  Liberty Jack, first off the claim for Miller (24% with this angle), has won at this abbreviated sprint distance in the past and could be quite dangerous from off the pace (his preferred style) in a field with suspect speed.  On numbers, he’s more than good enough to win at this level.  Fire to the Wire turns back from a route try and should be prominent throughout from the rail.  His only career win came over this main track, and if he breaks cleanly he should be close up throughout and have every chance.  Slight preference on top goes to Liberty Jack.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 5-Tizanillusion; 8-Salten Sapity; 10-Glorious Hour

Forecast: The late Pick-4 begins with a stronger-than-par first-level allowance sprint down the Hillside Course for older fillies and mares.  Tizanillusion finished fourth as the choice in a similar spot in early February but was well below her best form in that race and may have needed the outing.  Let’s give her a chance to make amends, though with two career wins and a total of eight seconds/thirds, she doesn’t really have the reputation of being trustworthy.  Salten Sapity, a strong runner-up in the same race Tizanillusion exits,  was close to the pace that day but might be more effective when held up early and allowed to roll late, similar to the style she employed when breaking her maiden over this course last fall.  She loses Prat (who is riding up north today) but picks Maragh.  Glorious Hour graduated impressively in a smart Hillside performance last month in just her third career start and may have found her niche as a grass sprinter.  Drawn comfortably outside and with Baze riding her back, the daughter of Bodemeister is a “must use.”


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 7-Milhaud; 8-Pampers n’ Boots

Forecast: Pampers n’ Boots drops to his lowest level ever, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy  Ceballos, and is re-equipped with blinkers in this restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 abbreviated sprint for older horses (it’s a split of the sixth race).  He also sports the route-to-sprint angle and is a perfect one-for-one at this exact distance.  At 7/2 on the morning line we’ll put him on top.  Milhaud just defeated a very modest band of maiden $20,000 claimers with something left.  He’ll need to improve in the speed figure department but at least we know he’s healthy and in good form, so we’ll toss him in as well.


RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Joeray; 9-Southern Warlord; 10-Honeymoonz Over

Forecast:  Southern Warlord is intriguing in his first start since September; he’s fast enough to win based strictly one numbers and returns as a first-time gelding for new trainer Mulhall.  The son of Shackleford may be the best of the speed types.  Joeray must overcome the rail, and his win in a similar starter’s allowance race race, while earning a good number, was accomplished over a wet fast track.  The son of Midnight Lute still has something to prove, but he’s lightly-raced and likely to move forward with experience.  Honeymoonz Over, second to Joeray last time out, should enjoy a pace-pressing trip from her outside post and on fast ground could easily return to his best form.


​​​​​RACE 10: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 4-Closing Time; 7-Kings River King; 8-Kenny Benny

Forecast: Kings River King has run well over this course and distance in the past and could fire a huge shot fresh in his first start since August.  Look for this son of Acclamation to be heard from in the final furlong.  Closing Time flew home but ran out of room when second in a similar state-bred first-level allowance affair in late January and has trained in sharp style since for Mullins.  Baze stays aboard and knows him well.  Price players should consider Kenny Benny in the exotics; the Red Giant gelding is 20-1 on the morning line in his first career try on grass and is certainly is bred to improve on the sod.  Additionally, he’s won two of his last three starts, albeit vs. softer foes.




Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Analysis/Wagering Strategies for SA, GP, & GGF for Saturday, March 31, 2018

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