Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 30, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, March 30, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Tell Me More; 9-Brandon’s Law

Forecast: Tell Me More is a seven-race maiden but has been knocking on the door and just earned a career top speed figure when second in a similar maiden claiming turf miler earlier this month.  A duplication of that effort today should be more than good enough to earn her a diploma, but at 9/5 on the morning line she’ll probably not offer much wagering value.  Despite her extreme outside post, Brandon’s Law  is worth including on a ticket or two; the lightly-raced daughter of Stay Thirsty finished fifth in the same race ‘More exits but didn’t get the best of trips, may have needed the race anyway, and switches to Prat for the high percentage Cerin stable.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 4-Pure Pursuit; 5-Towards the Light

Forecast: Towards the Light is a first-off-the-claim play for O’Neill and will be adding blinkers in this maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for older horses.  The son of Munnings has a significant edge in the speed figure department, but having just failed at 40 cents on the dollar, he’s probably not one to trust.  Pure Pursuit, a weakening fourth in the same race Towards the Light exits, should be a strong pace factor and in a soft field could stick around for a long time.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise stay away from.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 5-Sir Valentine; 6-Royal Trump

Forecast:  Royal Trump and Sir Valentine exit the same race, an infinitely tougher first-level allowance affair, and both should be much more competitive in this $40,000 claimer for 3-year-olds.  ‘Trump has a prior win over this main track and steadily rising speed figures, so he’ll get the nod on top, but ‘Valentine has the dangerous blinkers-off angle that we like and is another that has won here in the past.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  3-Kylemore; 5-Fibonacci

Forecast: Fibonacci has improved with each outing and most recently won over this course and distance like a future star.  A similar effort should allow the son of Artie Schiller to score right back.  Kylemore has a bit more experience than Fibonacci, though he’s not quite as fast based strictly on speed figures.  The Harty-trained colt should be running on late.  These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top to Fibonacci.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 7-Cow Dog

Forecast: Cow Dog stepped forward off her debut with a decent runner-up effort vs. similar bottom-rung maiden claimers and really won’t have to improve much to graduate.  The Old Topper filly gets a break in the weights with the switch to promising bug boy Ceballos and should be on or near the lead throughout.  As the likely short priced favorite, she’s a logical no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-Pursuing The Dream; 7-Classy Atlantic; 8-Out of the Flames

Forecast: This highly-contentious downhill turf sprint for first-level allowance 3-year-old fillies requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we’ll go three-deep and hope that’s sufficient.  Out of The Flames shows two strong efforts over this unique course, most recently finishing a good third in the Sweet Life Stakes while earning a legitimate number.  She adds blinkers, retains Prat, and is strictly the one to beat.  Classy Atlantic broke her maiden in late January over this course and distance in game style and has trained steadily since.  She’s likely to continue her improving pattern for Glatt and on paper is the quickest of the quick.  Pursing The Dream makes her U.S. debut for Cassidy in a good spot; she broke her maiden in a listed stakes in France last summer and thus remains eligible for this non-winners of two condition.  Her European form makes her a “must use” in the exotics.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Allie’s Love; 4-Mongolian Rahy; 7-Irish Cream N Café; 8-Baby Brown

Forecast: A little will go a long way in this maiden $30,000 claiming sprint over five furlongs for 3-year-old fillies.  We’ll spread four deep.  Mongolian Rahy appears to be a progressive style and looks capable of producing the last run.  She lands a stronger rider in Elliott and may offer some value at or near her morning line of 4-1.  Allie’s Love drops to her lowest level ever and should produce a forward move.  She fast enough on speed figures off her best effort to beat this field and at this trip may be able to stick it out.  Irish Cream N Café is a first-timer from a clever outfit with an okay work tab.  Most of the maidens from the Miyadi barn run better than they work, so at 6-1 on the morning line she has to be included.  Baby Brown shows a 59 1/5 gate work for Hofmans, but she’s debuting cheap so we’re not quite sure if she’s all that much.  We’ll include her, nonetheless.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-Ten Blessings; 7-Desert Law

Forecast: Ten Blessings missed as the favorite in his first start since December of 2016 but earned a giant speed figure when missing by just a half-length to stable mate Dr. Dorr and has every right to improve while getting an extra furlong to work with.  The son of Smart Strike prefers to stalk and pounce and will likely get that trip today.  However, he’s 8/5 on the morning line and probably will go lower.  Desert Law lands the cozy outside post, has good form over this main track and should be a much more attractive price, so we’ll give her top billing.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Huddle; 3-Minister’s Glory; 8-Save Ground

Forecast: Save Ground is strongest in the speed figure department and rates the edge in this state-bred turf mile affair for sophomores.  The son of Square Eddie probably can’t beat a good maiden but there may not be one in here.  Huddle had a prep down the hill, finishing evenly to be a distant third, and seems quite likely to produce a forward move with that effort behind him combined with this stretch out in trip.  He should be close up throughout from his favorable rail draw.  Minister’s Glory is a one-paced grinder with a couple of decent tries under these conditions and with only slight improvement should have some say in the matter.

 

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Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, March 30, 2018

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