Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 27, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Friday, April 27, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Minister’s Glory; 9-Tatar; 10-Faversham

Forecast:  The opener is a wide open grass grab bag for state-bred maidens over a mile.  California Chrome’s full-brother Faversham was eliminated in mid-stretch when a distant third vs. similar last month and today tries his luck on the sod.  In a field in which the main contenders are fairly exposed, let’s try one that may have the most upside.  Tatar is a nine-race maiden but goes without blinkers for the first time and could display improvement, especially if he can switch off early and produce a late kick in a field that should have a decent amount of pace.  Minister’s Glory is a one-paced grinder with a solid runner-up try over this course and distance in his most recent start.  Not much more will be needed today.  Let’s use all three in our rolling exotics while preferring Faversham slightly on top.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Majestic Journey; 7-Williston Dude

Forecast:  In a modest bottom-rung maiden claiming router, Williston Dude is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite pretty much by default.  Third in a similar spot last month, the First Dude gelding is a nine-race maiden and not one to trust but in a field lacking in speed he should be forwardly placed and have every chance.  Majestic Journey, sixth in the same race ‘Dude exits, has back numbers that can win, and may offer a bit more wagering value.  Tread lightly.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 2-Touching Rainbows

Forecast:  Touching Rainbows has trained like he’s fit and ready for his first outing since September and the D’Amato-trained gelding should be the solid choice.  Plenty fast enough on speed figures and with excellent form over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Aragon can win on the lead or from a stalking position, so Prat can play it by ear.  At 9/5 on the morning line he’s a rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Single:  7-Jeweled

Forecast:  Jeweled has much in her favor in this starter’s allowance sprint for fillies and mares.  Fastest on speed figures and drawn comfortably outside, she looks quite capable of repeating on the raise for new trainer Sadler as the controlling speed in a field without much zip.  She’s 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower; we’ll make her a no value rolling exotic single.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  1-Special Purpose; 9-Ahimsa

Forecast:  Special Purpose outclasses this field if she duplicates her excellent juvenile form in this, her U.S. debut.  The daughter of Scat Daddy has shown enough in the a.m. to indicate she’s fit and ready, and since she won her debut last year at Lingfield we know she can fire fresh.  Rail and all, she’s the top pick.  Ahimsa tries grass for the first time and we suspect the daughter of Animal Kingdom will produce a significant forward move.  She switches to Prat, and her debut win at Los Alamitos two runs back charts very well with these.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Rocket Fuel; 5-Midnight Bolt; 11-Eighty Three

Forecast:  This $20,000 claiming sprint is borderline inscrutable with question marks surrounding most of the major players.  Use as many as you can afford to.  Eighty Three, away since November, shows up in a moderate claimer and must have issues, but the Jacobson-trained gelding can win if can come close to reproducing his Eastern from from last year.  That may be a big “if,” however, though this barn has good stats with layoff runners.   Rocket Fuel, the “other” Jacobson, is a first-off-the-claim play with a strong record over this main track and has plenty of room to improve off his recent outings.  Midnight Bolt can handle dirt just fine, though the bulk of his work has come on all-weather surfaces.  A nice win at Golden Gate Fields in his most recent start indicates he’s in good form, and his handy stalking style should have him within striking range throughout.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Allaboutaction; 7-Street Vision

Forecast:  Allaboutaction won a similar optional/claiming $40,000 sprint last month and seeks a repeat score this time in straight $40,000 claiming company for new trainer Baltas (superior stats with this angle).  Perfect in two starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Candy Ride was a bit unlucky to draw the rail, meaning he’ll have to pop and go to secure the pace setting/forcing trip that he prefers.  Street Vision also goes for new connections – he was taken for $25,000 by Jacobson after finishing fourth in an abbreviated sprint – and should appreciate today’s extra furlong.  First or second in five of nine career starts over the local main track, the son of Street Sense could be dangerous from off the pace with some help up front.  Let’s use both in rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Allaboutaction on top.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Huddle; 8-The Hunted

Forecast:  Huddle adds blinkers, lands a good inside post and seems certain to employ gate-to-wire-tactics.  If he can relax on the front end just a little bit, the Sadler-trained colt could be hard to catch.  The Hunted has worked a bit better than his moderate clockings would indicate and is bred for grass on both sides of his pedigree.  He looks like a very well-meant first-timer from the Baltas barn, and having been purchased last summer in Ocala for $95,000 he’s clearly well-regarded.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play.





Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, April 27, 2018

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