Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, April 5, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Thursday, April 5, 2018


RACE 1: Post 12:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Kochees; 2-Banze No Oeste; 5-Coastline

Forecast: Older $25,000 claiming horses sprint down the Hillside Course in a very competitive Thursday opener.  Past-classer Coastline seems well-placed for big effort; the son of Speightstown exits a better-than-average race for the level and returns after a six week vacation in a race that doesn’t have an intense amount of speed signed out.  Desormeaux should have him comfortably placed in a stalking position throughout.  Banze No Oeste has the route-to-sprint angle we like plus an excellent record over the local lawn.  He returns to his claim level and should be running on strongly late.  Kochees moves all the way up from the $8,000 level for high-percentage trainer Wong after a couple of sharp – and highly rated recent wins.  We’ll take this maneuver as a sign of confidence and give this Lion Heart gelding a big look despite the class hike.


​​RACE 2: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Yalla; 7-Veiled Heat

Forecast: There’s no depth to this maiden $20,000 claiming sprint for older fillies and mares; the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics will both be a short price in a race that probably is best left alone.  Yallah was more than five clear of the rest when second vs. similar last month and not much better will be needed to earn her a diploma in 10th career start.  Veiled Heat is an 11-race maiden but did finish just ahead of Yallah in her most recent start and from the comfortable outside draw should enjoy a soft, pace-stalking trip.  The will very likely will be one of these two.


Enjoy this comprehensive video analysis of the entire Pick-6 sequence, with Aaron Vercruysse and Jeff Siegel – click here to watch.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Here and There; 2-City Steel; 4-Roaring Rule

Forecast:  Here and There stretches out for the first time and should be the controlling speed form his inside post.  On pedigree he should handle the added distance, and his recent sprint win was visually quite impressive, justifying this double-jump in class.  Roaring Rule was simply outrun when no factor vs. tougher up north in his most recent outing but the veteran son of Tribal Rule knows how to win races and is a prior winner over this main track.  He’s a strong fit on speed figures for a sharp outfit.  City Steel may be at a disadvantage as a deep closer in a race without much pace, but he’s managed to win 13 races in his career, so we’ll in include him as well.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  1-Donut Girl; 4-Tiny Tina; 5-Mixed Emotions; 6-Avail

Forecast: This wide-open starter allowance sprint for fillies and mares requires a spread; we’ll use four of the six in the line-up while preferring Donut Girl on top.  A winner at first asking and claimed by Palma, the daughter of Smiling Tiger catches a field without much zip and should be prominent throughout despite her rail draw.  Tiny Tina has rising numbers and is the likely choice and one to beat.  She’s not really a quick type from the gate but will find herself within range if the fractions come up as soft as projected.  Mixed Emotions just won gamely from a modest maiden $50,000 band; she’s slower on figures than the other main contenders but certainly has a right to produce a forward move.  Avail is the least preferred on the four; she had every chance but hung in her most recent start but is a first-off-the-claim for Koriner and could display improvement for her new connections.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Foxtail; 7-Gia Lula; 8-Diva La Mousse

Forecast: This is another spread affair in which nothing, really, would surprise us.  Diva La Mousse seems the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can on the front end but the Baffert-trained filly always is suspect in the final furlong.  Her last effort – second vs. similar when beaten less than a length – probably will be good enough to beat this field.  Gia Lula ran well two-turning on turf vs. straight maiden foes last summer at Del Mar and if she can run back to that today she’ll be a major player.  This will be her first start since October and her first for a tag, so the daughter of Gio Ponti has to be used at anywhere close to her morning line of 8-1.  Foxtail ran okay in her debut over this course  and distance in early February; Baze stays aboard for Sadler and she could easily step forward with that bit of experience behind her.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 6-Foxy Fresh

Forecast: Foxy Fresh looks very much like the best of speed types and gets a massive break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza.  She exits a productive race, has won twice over this main track, and drops for the money run.  At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 2-My Aunt Tillie; 7-Batiquitos; 10-Inland Empire

Forecast: Inland Empire offers excellent long shot value at 12-1 on the morning line.  She’s a big price because she doesn’t quite match up with the main contenders based strictly on speed figures, but we believe she’s better than the numbers give her credit for and show that today in her first try on grass (with Lemon Drop Kid on the bottom of her pedigree, she should love it).  There’s plenty of pace to compliment her late running style, and Smith, who just won in her, stays aboard.  Batiquitos has run well in both of her grass outings to date and has the pedigree to stretch out successfully.  She has winning connections and the kind of early speed that should have her in the firing line throughout.  My Aunt Tillie is racing in good form and may be the most dangerous of the deep closers.  She earned a career top number when second under these conditions last month and Nakatani will have her rolling late once again.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Perfect Wager; 4-Leroy; 6-Poco Diablo; 7-Flynn

Forecast: The finale is a difficult state-bred maiden special weight sprint with a ton of question marks and several dangerous first-time starters.  Perfect Wager has the benefit of a recent run, a better-than-looked fifth place effort in a fast, highly-rated race.  If breaks well today – he didn’t in his debut and his cost him – the Mullins-trained gelding will be hard to beat unless there’s a hot first-timer he has deal with.  And there could be.  Leroy has displayed some ability in his a.m. works and lands Prat for a low profile barn that does well with debut runners.  Beware.  Poco Diablo has been burning up the track at Los Alamitos for Harrington and looks dangerous.  Flynn hails from the clever Miyadi barn and sports a 58 4/5 gate work last month to indicate ability.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, April 5, 2018

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