The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, January 19, 2018
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Forecast: It took 12 races for Conqueror to break his maiden and now that he’s done so the Vladimir Cerin-trained gelding could easily score right back in this starter’s allowance extended sprint. The son of Malibu Moon has put together back-to-back highly-rated efforts, so based strictly on speed figures he should be able to handle this field, the disadvantageous rail post notwithstanding. Let’s make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.
RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Bedeviled; 6-Big Day Tomorrow
Forecast: Bedeviled shows up in a claimer after failing to make much of a dent in three tries vs. first-level allowance competition. His only prior win came over the Santa Anita main track, his recent numbers make him a strong fit at this level, and he’s reunited with “win rider” Desormeaux. We’re expecting this son of Lookin’ At Lucky to be along in time. Big Day Tomorrow is worth using in rolling exotic play as well; the son of Big Brown earned a career top number beating maiden claimers last fall when trained by Ron Ellis and sports a strong, steady work pattern in recent weeks after joining the Blake Heap barn.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Out of The Flames; 7-Spiced Perfection
Forecast: Out of The Flames will be a strong favorite following a highly-favorable U.S. debut performance sprinting on turf in stronger company at Del Mar on Breeders’ Cup weekend. The Simon Callaghan-trained import shows a healthy recent work pattern, retains Flavien Prat, and should enjoy today’s extra furlong and a half. Spiced Perfection has good, consistent form in state-bred company and looks the best of the rest, though there’s a question whether she’ll be able to transfer her dirt form to the Hillside course. We’ll prefer Out of the Flames strongly on top but use Spiced Perfection as a back-up or a saver on a ticket or two.
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Line Drive; 6-Wild Edie
Forecast: Line Drive drops to her lowest level ever, returns to the main track and turns back to a sprint. A repeat of her race before last should be good enough to win. Wild Edie has improving speed figures, finished second in her pair at this level, and probably will continue to produce forward moves with added experience. She was four clear of the rest in her last start and should have no issue with today’s extra half furlong. Let’s give Line Drive a slight edge on top but use both in our rolling exotic play.
RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Prairie Citizen; 4-Dr. Ann
Forecast: Prairie Citizen and Dr. Ann both show that all important maiden to maiden-claiming class drop angle and both look very live in this moderate mile turf event for sophomore fillies. ‘Citizen has improving speed figures, a good inside post, and gets a weight break with the switch to bug boy Roman. Dr. Ann switches to Prat, had trouble in her turf debut vs. infinitely stronger foes, and has a big look based on the speed figure she earned when fourth in straight maiden company on turf at Del Mar in November.
RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: Regulate exits a powerful race while improving dramatically off his disappointing debut and with another forward moved today the Bob Baffert-trained colt should be home free at a short price. The son of Quality Road remains highly-regarded and continues to impress in the morning. Let’s make him a short priced rolling exotic single.
RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Gotta Get Lucky; 8-Dad’s a Gambler
Forecast: Dad’s a Gambler is good enough to beat this field if he leaves cleanly with his field. Unfortunately, he doesn’t often do that. The son of Awesome Gambler once again cost himself his best chance with a slow start vs. similar last month but did well to make a run for it while keeping to his task throughout and winding up a respectable third while earning a competitive speed figure. Gotta Get Lucky returns to his favorite racetrack and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance. The route-to-spring angle is attractive as well, as is this one-level class drop. We’ll try to get by using just these two; we’ll have an extra ticket or two keying Dad’s a Gambler on top.
RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 1-Eagle Screams
Forecast: Eagle Screams seems the solid choice in this $20,000 claiming turf miler. The Jeff Bonde-trained old timer, freshened since June, returns in a realistic spot and has trained well enough over the all-weather surface at Golden Gate Fields to be fit and ready. From his comfortable inside draw, he should be forwardly placed and have every chance under Desormeaux, so we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.