Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, Jan. 20, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, January 20, 2018

​RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 5-An Eddie Surprise; 6-Mo See Cal

Forecast: An Eddie Surprise flashed ability when a closing second in a Hillside turf sprint last fall in her debut, and her recent comeback on dirt can be tossed out.  She returns to her preferred surface, stretches out to a trip she should handle, and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman.  Mo See Cal has rising speed figures and could inherit the role as the controlling speed.  We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two – we’ll give An Eddie Surprise a slight edge on top – and use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Lombo; 4-Masked

Forecast: Masked has done plenty of good work in the morning for Baffert and clearly is a live first-timer, though at 6/5 on the morning line he hardly offers any value.  Lombo exits a hot race and has rising speed figures; he’s the best of the known element and should be included as well.  Tread lightly here.

 

​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-I Will Score; 4-Just Kidding

Forecast:  I Will Score exits a pair of difficult, highly-contentious sprints and drops for the money run today while stretching out to a distance he should be able to handle at this level.  Gate-to-wire tactics surely will be employed.  Just Kidding remains above his claim level for Carava and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with slight preference on top to I Will Score.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 1-Lady Mamba; 2-Chalky; 4-Achira

Forecast:  Achira looks ready to win.  She’s improving with racing, has a strong late kick, switches to Smith, and sports a healthy work pattern since her last outing in late November.  Lady Mamba, away since last July, returns with two recent bullet workouts to indicate she’s fit and ready.  On pure numbers she’s right there with these and could easily be a better type this time around.  Chalky closed a gap sprinting down the hill in her U.S. debut and is likely to produce a forward move stretching out while adding blinkers.  In a stronger-than-par race for the level, let’s go with Achira on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

​RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: C

Use: 3-Is Trevor Clever; 4-Seau

Forecast: Seau is a 12-race maiden and not one to trust but he shows up in a claimer for the first time, removes blinkers, gets a weight break with the switch to Roman, and has speed figures over this main track that are better than par for bottom-rung maiden seller.  Is Trevor Clever has a bit more room to improve and stretches out again after a solid sprint effort over this track earlier this month.  Let’s try to get by using only these two in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 5-Sauce On Side; 6-Tinabud

Forecast: Tinabud is an intriguing invader from Fair Grounds for the red-hot Morey barn and with that ship and win money available you know she’s extremely live and well-meant.  The daughter of Lookin At Lucky is a fit on speed figures and seems certain to continue her improving pattern.  Sauce On Side broke her maiden convincingly with a career top number earlier this month and really won’t have to do a whole lot better today to score right back.  This starter optional claimer pretty much boils down to these two; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying Tinabud on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:38 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 1-Coniah; 5-Miss Southern Miss; 9-Beau Recall

Forecast: Beau Recall has been routing most of her career but she should enjoy this turn back to a sprint.  The Irish-bred filly exits a series of Grade 1 events and was actually beaten just a nose in the Del Mar Oaks three runs back.  This is a considerably softer group, so with good racing luck she seems more than capable of producing the last run.  Coniah is winless on turf but did run super over this course and distance when narrowly beaten in the MIzdirection Stakes last spring.  Away since June but training superbly up north over the all-weather track at Golden Gate Fields, the Morey-trained mare should be on or near the lead throughout.  Price players may want to toss in Miss Southern Miss, a stakes winner over this turf course in the past.  Like Beau Recall, she boasts the route-to-sprint angle and seems better than her recent races indicate.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:10 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Gosofar; 4-Rocky’s Show; 5-Quantum Force

Forecast:  Gosofar takes a nosedive in class and if he has one good one left he’ll handle this task.  He’s back sprinting and back on dirt, and a repeat of his race before last will be good enough.  Rocky’s Show seems the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as he can.  Against this group he might get brave.  Quantum Force is a first-off-the-claim for Freeman and once was well regarded.  The Papa Clem gelding had excuses in both of his races off the long layoff and the raise in class seems can be interpreted as a sign of confidence.

 

​RACE 9: Post 4:42 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 5-Tribal Fighter; 6-Conquest Tsunami; 8-Ronald R

Forecast: Tribal Fighter should be the controlling speed in this downhill turf sprint and if he gets that kind of trip he could be long gone.  The Baltas-trained veteran did well to stick around for third in a similar affair in his most recent outing last fall, has trained well since, and looks primed for a major effort.  Ronald R makes his U.S. debut for Callaghan and is “must use.”  He finished second of 29 in a valuable handicap at Royal Ascot last summer and anything close to that effort today will make him very difficult to contain.  Conquest Tsunami has good Canadian speed figures to make him a fit in this league and is a first-time Peter Miller.  The Stormy Atlantic gelding will be prominent throughout.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, Jan. 20, 2018

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