Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, June 2, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, June 2, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Single: 4-Famous Rock Star

Forecast:  We’re going to single Famous Rock Star in the opener, a maiden $50,000 claimer over a mile on turf.  It’s either that, or spread the race, and if you’d prefer to do that, go right ahead.  ‘Star shows up in a claimer for the first time, adds blinkers, and has more room to improve than the others, having started only twice.  We wouldn’t be surprised to see Conner employ gate-to-wire tactics in a race in which the closers hardly inspire confidence.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Above Board; 6-Rprettyboyfloyd

Forecast:  Rprettyboyfloyd and Above Board just finished one-two in a $12,500 affair; both surface in an $8,000 claimer today, not a healthy sign for either one.  ‘Floyd is dropping off a Jacobson claim, not too unusual for this barn, and seems to have found a field with enough pace to compliment his closing style.  ‘Board lands the rail and projects to be forwardly placed and have every chance.  We’ll double the race in rolling exotic play but not with a high degree of confidence.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-For the Hustle; 6-Artistic Ab; 8-Our Tiger’s Boy

Forecast:  Artistic Ab has numbers that are par for this level and may have found a proper spot in his seventh career outing.  The son of Dialed In plummets to the bottom maiden claiming rung and gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza.  He should have enough early zip to press or make the lead at this abbreviated sprint distance.  Our Tiger’s Boy is quick enough himself to be a major player, and after finishing in the frame in each of his last three starts could be set to break through with a win.  For the Hustle has shown zip vs. tougher, and if he breaks running from the rail he’ll have a say in the matter throughout.  None of these are trustworthy but we suspect the winner will be one of the three.  Tread lightly here.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use:  2-Super Duper Cooper; 3-Polity; 6-Kona Coast

Forecast:  We’ll go three-deep in this six runner starter’s allowance main track miler, but nothing in here is without a chance.  Kona Coast just graduated in a maiden $50,000 over this track and distance and earned a giant number in doing so.  He’s a first-off-the-claim play for O’Neill and clearly prefers to be taken back and allowed to produce one late run.  With that kind of trip today from Bejarano, the son of Eskendereya looks capable of winning right back.  Polity adds blinkers in his first try around two turns for Hofmans; if he’s ever going to stay a mile it will be in his first try.  Super Duper Cooper is strong in the speed figure department, though he’s winless in six starts over the Santa Anita main track.  He gets a strong weight break with the switch to Espinoza and sports a healthy work pattern for his first start off a two month freshening.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Looking At Thelake; 6-Road Test

Forecast:  Looking At Thelake just finished a solid second over this course and distance in a similar restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 turf miler and anything close to that effort today puts her right there, though her 1-for-18 career mark hardly inspires confidence.  From the rail, she should enjoy an ideal ground-saving, pace-stalking trip.  Road Test is 1-for-17 with 10 seconds and thirds, and just finished third in the same race Looking At Thelake exits.  She’ll be running on late.  These are the two most logical contenders, but you may feel the need to spread deeper.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Competing; 5-Bear Down Cats; 9-Fly First Class

Forecast:  This sixth race is a split of the third race, a maiden $20,000 five furlong sprint.  Competing and Bear Down Cats are first-time geldings with form that makes them major contenders in a woefully weak race.  The former drops to the bottom, switches to Espinoza, and should be on or near the lead throughout.  ‘Cats has had trouble in each of his first two starts and could improve a bunch with good start and a clean trip.  Fly First Class is re-equipped with blinkers and exits a series of straight maiden races; the Sadler-trained gelding should be competitive in this league.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Take the One O One; 2-Hardboot

Forecast:  Take the One O One may not really want to run this far but against this group of California-bred 3-yer-olds the son of Acclamation should be able to establish the pace and keep on going.  The only real dangerous closer in the field is the improving Hardboot, winner of the Silky Sullivan Stakes at Golden Gate Fields last month with a career top number.  We should be able to survive and advance in rolling exotic play using just these two.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Thalia; 5-Lemon Crush; 8-Paprika

Forecast: Paprika, runner-up in her first three career starts, returns to the main track today and looks well-spotted to graduate.  She’s adding blinkers and is switching to Desormeaux and seems the solid choice in a race restricted to state-bred fillies and mares.  Lemon Crush, in her first start since August and her first for Palma, broke slowly, fell back, and then produced a willing rally to be third vs. similar last month.  She gets an extra half-furlong to work with today, so if she leaves with her field the daughter of Richard’s Kid likely will be heard from late.  Thalia split the field in her debut in a downhill turf sprint last month and has a right to produce a forward move today while switching to the main track.  The D’Amato-trained filly must overcome the rail, but is worth including in a moderate field.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 6-Unique Bella

Forecast: Unique Bella failed at 20 cents on the dollar when second in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park in April but a poor start over a sticky track gives her a legitimate excuse.  She’ll have none today in the Grade-1 Beholder Mile.  We’ll use her a short price rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Hootie; 5-Passionate Reward; 8-Tina’s Exchange

Forecast: Tina’s Exchange earned a career top speed figure when second over this course and distance in a similar first-level allowance event in early April and sports a healthy work tab since.  A repeat of his last race should be good enough.  Hootie sprints for the first time in his eight race career and he just might be well-suited by the conditions.  The son of Candy Ride figures to lay back and then try to blast home.  His route numbers make him a fit.  Passionate Reward won at first asking in a Hillside turf affair a little over a month ago but didn’t earn much of a speed figure.  We’ll find out how good he is today.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Saturday, June 2, 2018

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