The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, June 8, 2018
RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Honeymoonz Over; 3-Risky Proposition
Forecast: Risky Proposition disappointed when sent over a distance of ground for the first time in his most recent start, but today shortens back to a sprint so we’re expecting the son of Bodemeister to regain his best form. A repeat of his race before last – a close fourth over this course and distance – should be good enough to beat this starter’s allowance field. Honeymoonz Over also sports the route-to-sprint angle and switches to Bejarano. The O’Neill-trained gelding is unproven on grass but is bred to like it, at least on the dam’s side. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Risky Proposition.
RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 4-Blaze’n Prospector; 3-Four Gaels
Forecast: Blaze’n Prospector just edged a softer field in game style and earned a speed figure that should allow him to win right back on the one-level raise. Four Gales – beaten just a neck by ‘Prospector in that May 20 sprint – is the one to fear most right back. These are the two we’ll include in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise stay away from.
RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X
Forecast: The Pick-6 begins with the third race, a maiden special weight one mile turf affair for state-bred fillies and mares. There is nothing to trust, and that includes our top pick, the poorly-drawn Zillinda. But if it’s not her, then who? The Headley-trained filly has finished in the money in her last three starts and numbers that can win, so we can either single, spread the race, or pass it altogether. Tread lightly here.
RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 2-Tidal Effect
Forecast: Tidal Effect stretches out again, and with a repeat of his highly-rated runner-up effort two races back over this track and distance the son of Malibu Moon should be home free. The Callaghan-trained gelding , 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, is a logical no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Millie Joel; 3-Bonneville Flats
Forecast: Bonneville Flats moves up from open $6,250 to restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 – not really a class raise – and in a very weak affair looks good enough to win at 7/2 on the morning line. The Hofmans-trained sophomore filly by Flat Out should draft into a comfortable pace-prompting/stalking position and then have every chance. Millie Joe lands the rail and might try gate-to-wire tactics. She broke her maiden over this track and distance four races back and has been chasing tougher ever since.
RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Cimple Man; 3-Air Vice Marshal; 6-Texas Wedge; 8-Artie B Good
Forecast: This is a grass grab bag for second-level allowance sprinters and requires a spread. Cimple Man is fast on figures, is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, and adds blinkers in his first start since being claimed for $62,500 by Sadler. With good racing luck he could be along in time. Texas Wedge, freshened since November, won his only prior turf outing sprinting at Del Mar with an impressive performance, and if he returns as well as he left for Miller he’ll be dangerous. The son of Colonel John is best when held up early and allowed to blast home and should receive that kind of ride from Desormeaux. Air Vice Marshal is racing in good form, though he’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win. With the switch to Bejarano, the son of War Front should be heard from in the final furlong. Artie B Good is a 3-year-old tackling older in his first outing since September but won both of his sprint races last year and today tries grass, for which he certainly is bred to like (Artie Schiller). Toss him in at 15-1 on the morning line.
RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Tiz Intriguing; 7-Champagne Honey; 12-Fight Lika Girl
Forecast: Older state-bred maiden claiming fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in a messy, wide-open seventh race. We’ll go three deep, but best advice is to include as many as you can afford to. Champagne Honey has plenty of zip but not a whole lot of stick. She’ll take them as far as she can, but that last sixteenth of a mile won’t be easy. Tiz Intriguing was well-backed when chasing straight maidens at Los Alamitos in her debut last December; she broke slowly in that race and finished far back, but her recent works have been good. She’s very likely better than shown. Fight Lika Girl flashed speed but was virtually eased in maiden special weight company in her debut in late April; she drops into a high priced claimer today and is another that probably will improve. Today we’ll find out if she can run at all.
RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-X S Gold; 7-Clearly Gone
Forecast: Clearly Gone just broke her maiden over this course and distance last month and with continued improvement might be good enough to come right back and take this state-bred first-level allowance event. Prat is out of town, so Bejarano picks up the live mount. X S Gold has plenty of zip and on numbers is a strong fit. Against this field the Cassidy-trained filly should have no trouble getting the front-running trip that she requires.