Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, June 7, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, June 7, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Queen Bee to You; 4-All of a Sudden; 5-Cleverly Beverly

Forecast:  Little would surprise us in today’s opener, a grass grab bag for state-bred, first-level allowance fillies and mares.  We’ll try to get by using just three.  All of a Sudden ran okay in her recent comeback when third over this course and distance vs. similar rivals and with any kind of forward move should be capable of beating this field.  This will be her second start since joining the D’Amato barn, so improvement is likely.  Queen Bee to You, second, beaten a half-length in the same race ‘Sudden exits, switches to “win rider” Desormeaux and projects to be prominent throughout, her rail post notwithstanding.  She’s always preferred to run second or third rather than win but her record over the local lawn is good and she appears primed for a major effort.  Freshened since January, Cleverly Beverly arrives from Arizona boasting an admirable record of 11 careers wins and 15 seconds in 59 lifetime starts.  This drop back to a sprint could suit her well.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Resky Business; 3-Tiki Bar Logic

Forecast:  Tiki Bar Logic seeks her third straight score, and with rising speed figures could easily be up to the task in a five-runner $20,000 claiming miler for fillies and mares.  She’s clearly the controlling speed while stretching out again and retains Talamo.  Resky Business returns to her claim level in her second outing since joining the Gus Headley barn is a strong fit on speed figures, and gets a significant break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Espinoza.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring ‘Logic on top.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-El Tovar; 5-Reign On

Forecast:  The Pick-6 sequence begins with another downhill turf sprint, this one for $20,000 older claimers.  El Tovar shortens in trip, exits a tough starter’s allowance event, and wins this race with a repeat of his race-before-last, a career top effort over this course and distance.  All six of his career victories have been accomplished over the Santa Anita sod.  Reign On, first off the claim for Miller (a strong 23% with this angle), isn’t as fast on numbers as ‘Tovar but likes to win and has a prior score down the hill.  He gets a favorable jockey switch to Desormeaux and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking position.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B+

Use:  3-Factor of Two

Forecast: Factor of Two has the benefit of an excellent run under her belt, a runner-up effort in a strong race won by the highly-regarded Tijori.  Though no match for that one, the daughter of The Factor saved second money after pressing the pace throughout and can only be fitter and stronger today.  In a field in which the first-timers look okay but nothing more, let’s go with the proven element as a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 4-Julius; 6-Holly Blame

Forecast:  Julius was given a race in his debut when fifth behind hot-shot stable mate Explorer last month and should be a whole lot more serious today for Baffert (a powerful 27% with second-timers) while stretching out to a distance he should handle just fine.  We’re expecting the son of Tapit to employ gate-to-wire tactics.  As a saver, we’ll include on a ticket or two Holly Blame, a steadily-progressing colt with rising numbers and adding blinkers for the first time.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Cats Blame; 5-Uber Star; 6-Kona Dreams

Forecast:  Restricted (Nw-3) $35,000 claimers sprint down the Hillside course in the sixth race, a spread affair with several possibilities.  Cats Blame may be as good as any; the Chew-trained gelding won under these conditions two runs back with a strong figure and a repeat of that race today might be good enough.  Talamo, who was aboard for the win, gets back aboard today.  Uber Star has the route-to-sprint angle that we like (and the barn has super starts with this maneuver) and switches to bug boy Espinoza, so he’ll enjoy a favorable weight break as well.  Both of this gelding’s wins (from 19 career starts) have come over the Santa Anita turf course, so we’re anticipating a return to good form.  Kona Dreams hasn’t sprinted in a while but owns a prior win down the hill and should be prominent throughout.  His best numbers put him in the fray.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: X

Use: 6-Amada Rafaela

Forecast:  Armada Rafaela won by a pole in her debut and earned a sensational speed figure.  She’s a free bingo space as a no-value rolling exotic single for Baffert in what amounts to a pit stop en route to graded stakes competition.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 6-Beauty Divine; 9-Weather Market

Forecast:  We’ll close out the program with yet another turf sprint, this one a maiden claiming $40,000 affair for older fillies and mares.    Weather Market has been away since the fall when she displayed some ability placing in a pair of state-bred maiden special weight affairs.  She returns in a claimer but she’s a four-year-old so the class drop can’t really be considered too suspicious, and if she comes back as well as she left she should beat this modest field.  Beauty Divine just ran second over this course and distance in a similar maiden claimer while earning a career top figure.  She’ll benefit from an eight-pound drop in weights with the switch to bug boy Figueroa and should be in the fray once again.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, June 7, 2018

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