Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, May 4, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, May 4, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 6-Time for Kisses; 7-Quant Savant

Forecast:  The first baby race of the season drew a modest field featuring two short priced contenders.  Quant Savant is bred to win early (Square Eddie) and has been prepared by O’Neill to be fit and ready first crack out of the box.  She’ll likely be the choice over Time for Kisses, another that appears cranked up following a pair of decent local gate drills.  Both should be included in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 5-Jazaalah

Forecast: Jazaalah was victimized by a lack of pace but did well to rally into the teeth of the slow splits to wind up a willing second in a promising local debut.  The daughter of Hard Spun gets an extra furlong to work with and with any kind of forward move should be along in time.  We’ll make her a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Purdue; 5-Princess Areni

Forecast:  Princess Areni was second in both of her career starts to date and looks ready to graduate at what probably will be a short price.  Purdue is a first-timer from a barn whose first-timers often run better than they work, so we’ll include her as well in a modest maiden claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  1-Dr. Troutman; 5-Swinging Star

Forecast: Dr. Troutman drops to his lowest level ever, and in this restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler appears to have found a field he can beat.  He’s only 1-for-18 in his career but the son of Vronsky has never faced this level of competition and we expect he’ll make the most of the opportunity.  Swinging Star stretches out again, likes this turf course, and should be heard from late.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade:

Use: 2-Junior Gilliam; 4-He’s a Tiger

Forecast:  Junior Gilliam, first off the claim for Sadler, has strong recent speed figures and good form over the Santa Anita main track.  The son of Tribal Rule looks capable of settling in mid-pack and then blasting home when called upon.  He’s a Tiger is a sharp Bay Area invader from a high percentage outfit.  With hot bug boy Espinoza aboard, he should be on or near the lead throughout.  Preference on top goes to the former Dodger second baseman but we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-El Tovar; 3-Leroy; 4-Preacher Roe

Forecast:  This highly-contentious downhill turf sprint for state-bred allowance older horses requires a spread.  Leroy was much the best winning at first asking, overcoming a poor start to rally late and score going away.  This is a considerably tougher group but if he leaves with his field the Oviedo-trained gelding should be very competitive.  El Tovar and Preacher Roe finished one-three over this course and distance in late March in a solid race for the level; both figure tough right back with similar efforts.  Let’s put Leroy slightly on top but triple the race in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 5-All Net; 7-Midnight Summer

Forecast:  Midnight Summer drops for the money run and this Miller-trained filly appears to have found a field she can handle.  The daughter of Midnight Lute ran reasonably well in her seasonal debut last month and with any kind of forward move today she should be hard to handle.  All Net likes this track and is a fit on speed figures based on her best efforts.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Midnight Summer.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-Most Amusing; 4-Argosy Fleet; 5-Stone Hands

Forecast: This is a tough race for the level – an entry level allowance sprint – and has several possibilities.  We’ll use three in our rolling exotics and hope to get by.  Most Amusing won at first asking like a nice prospect and should be dangerous right back despite the class hike.  Argosy Fleet, away since last July and returning for new trainer Spawr, showed considerable promise as a juvenile and will be tough if he returns as well as he left.  Stone Hands is fast on figures and currently in excellent form for O’Neill.  The son of Tapizar should be prominent throughout and have every chance.

 

RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 3-Into Glamour; 9-Loving Moment

 Forecast: Into Glamour is what she is – an average 3-year-old maiden filly – but in this below average field the Baltas-trained daughter of Into Mischief looks well-placed to graduate.  We’ll include her in our rolling exotics but prefer on top Loving Moment, lightly-raced and improving for D’Amato and stronger on speed figures than ‘Glamour.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Friday, May 4, 2018

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