Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, May 3, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, May 3, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Primo Touch; 3-True Loyalty; 4-Honeymoonz Over

Forecast:  Primo Touch is an intriguing Phoenix invader with rising speed figures and a four race winning streak.  This expensive claimer is a logical spot, and from the rail the McFarlane-trained gelding should be on or near the lead throughout.  True Loyalty shows up in a seller for the first time, is a strong fit on speed figures, and seems clearly the most dangerous of the closing types.  He’s the likely favorite and one to beat.  Honeymoonz Over has the blinkers-off angle that is highly effective under these conditions but must improve his speed figures.  We’ll toss him in on a ticket or two.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Extreme Heat; 4-Johnny Ray; 5-Git On Your Pulpit

Forecast: Extreme Heat has been away since November, 2016, but has trained like he’s fit and ready for new trainer Michele Dollase and is properly spotted in this maiden $50,000 extended sprint for older state-bred maidens.  He has numbers that fit – numbers that were achieved as a two-year-old – and he’s a first time gelding ridden by a hot apprentice.  We’ll put him on top but also use in our rolling exotics Johnny Ray (room to improve but probably not offering much value at 2-1 on the morning line) and Git On Your Pulpit (style that suits this seven furlong trip but needs to learn how to switch leads).

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Party Hostess; 6-Tiki Bar Logic

Forecast:  Party Hostess gets an extra furlong to work with today and looks capable of producing the last run.  In a field without much pace, the Hollendorfer-trained mare should be prominent throughout and have every chance.  Tiki Bar Logic tackles a bit tougher today but is a fit on figures and could clear this field from her cozy outside post.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll give a very slight edge on top to Party Hostess.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use:  4-Road Test; 5-Oh Scatty Oh

Forecast: Road Test ran a bit better than the line will show when third in a similar restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 claiming turf miler last month.  She’s clearly not keen on winning but against this group she’s probably as good as any.  Oh Scatty Oh was three clear of the rest when second in the same race Road Test just finished third in, and today gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Ceballos.  We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Queen Bee to You; 5-Silverspun Pickup; 6-Lostintranzlation

Forecast:  We’ll pass this race other than to go three-deep in our rolling exotics.  Lostintranzlation had a nightmarish trip vs. similar on turf last month but shouldn’t have any traffic trouble today with the return to the main track.  The surface switch shouldn’t be an issue.  Queen Bee to You may try gate to wire tactics from her inside draw, but her only decent two-turn try came when she was taken back and allowed to produce a late run.  She’s a hard one to classify but at least her recent outings have been solid.  Silverspun Pickup is lightly-raced and stretching out for the first time.  She’s not particular fast on numbers and certainly will need to improve, but at 8-1 on the morning line she’s probably worth using somewhere.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 4-Don’t Stalk Me; 5-Royal Trump

Forecast:  Don’t Stalk Me returned off an eight month layoff and ran very well to be second in a similar affair while earning a much improved speed figure; if he can run back to that effort today he’ll be the one to beat in this $20,000 claiming sprint for 3-year-olds.  The main concern is that he’s not being protected with a raise in class, so perhaps the connections don’t care about losing him (not a sign of confidence).  Royal Trump drops below his claim level for the money run and this Sadler-trained gelding certainly has numbers that fit.  These are the two main contenders and both should be included in rolling exotic play, with slight preference on top to Royal Trump.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Conqueror; 3-Fly to Mars; 7-Arms Runner

Forecast:  Arms Runner is a colt with much ability, clearly can fire fresh, and has superior form over this downhill turf course.  He’s one of two Miller-trained entrants that can win, the other being Fly to Mars, who was below form when unplaced at odds-on in a similar event last month.  He could be the speed of the speed.  Conqueror has never been sharper and very fast on speed figures but is winless on turf and this clearly is a step up in class.  We’ll use him as a back-up or a saver.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Single: 11-Sea Glass

Forecast: Sea Glass should pop and go from her outside draw, and against this softer group very likely will stick it out.  Her only prior main track race two runs back will be more than good enough, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, May 3, 2018

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