Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, January 21, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Lazzam; 2-Saltini

Forecast: Saltini is perfect in one start over the Santa Anita turf course and is lightly-raced with rising speed figures.  Freshened since November and working steadily in the interim, the Mandella-trained son of Bernardini looks best of a moderate field for the level.  Lazzam is a fit on figures and always is a late threat, but with just two wins to go along with 13 seconds and thirds on his resume the English-bred gelding has never been one to trust.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then press with Saltini on top.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-Get Em Up Scout; 5-Walk On Water

Forecast: Get Em Up Scout returns to the claiming ranks and catches a field his best can handle.  However, at 6/5 on the morning line, there’s no value to be found and he projects to be a short price rolling exotic single on most tickets.  As a saver, you may want to consider Miyadi’s other entrant, Walk on Water.  He was a respectable third behind ‘Scout when they clashed at Los Alamitos in December and has enough early speed to be dangerous if he can shake loose early.

 

​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: X

Use: 3-Super Terrific; 4-Lookie Loo; 5-Twisted Road

Forecast:  This maiden special weight sprint for older horses has three main contenders, so we’ll triple the race in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out.  Lookie Loo showed promise when third in his debut last March but then disappeared.  The Baffert-trained colt returns with a series of strong works and is strictly the one to beat.  Twisted Road is another second-time starter off a long layoff and he, too, has displayed good speed in the morning to indicate he’s fit and ready.  Super Terrific makes his first career start for Koriner while sporting a work tab that catches the eye.  At 6-1 on the morning line he’s worth tossing in as well.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  1-Speakers; 4-Dreamy Gal

Forecast:  This first-level state-bred allowance turf miler for fillies and mares came up rather weak; we’ll use two and hope that’s enough.  Dreamy Gal stretches out for the first time and doesn’t really have a route pedigree (or a turf one, either), but if she’s ever going to get a mile it will be in her first attempt.  We suspect the Mullins-trained filly will try gate-to-wire tactics.  Speakers stretches out again and should enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip from the rail.  On pure numbers she’s the deserved favorite.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:34 PT. Grade: B

Use: 2-Plastered; 6-Dalsaros

Forecast: Plastered returns to her claim level in her first start since early November and seems well-placed to regain her best form.  She loves to win races (6-for-18) and prefers this track (2-for-3).  Roman likely will have her on the lead or in a perfect stalking position.  Dalsaros stretches out again and a repeat of her maiden win over this track and distance last year makes her a major player.  With a nice sprint prep under her belt, the lightly-raced daughter of Unbridled’s Song seems primed for a major forward move.  We’ll give Plastered the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:06 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Kaboom; 6-Gio’s Gold

Forecast: Maiden $16,000 claimers sprint six furlongs in a race that appears to have two logical contenders.  Kaboom flashed good zip in his only outing last April before weakening late.  The Miyadi-trained gelding returns with blinkers on and shows a reasonable series of workouts to have him fit enough to win at this level.  Gio’s Gold was forced to steady at the start and lost early position in his recent debut but wasn’t beaten too badly when winding up fifth.  The Pender-trained gelding seems certain to be much more competitive with a clean break. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Kaboom on top.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:38 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 4-Lifeline

Forecast: Lifeline showed plenty of promise as a 3-year-old before being sent to the sidelines and returns sporting a work tab that should have him ready for a major effort off the bench.  The son of Tapit broke his maiden over this course and distance and looks capable of outclassing this first-level allowance field if he returns as well as he left.  At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:10 PT.  Grade: C

Use: 1-Top Brass; 8-Finallygotabentley; 10-Airfoil

Forecast:  A salty group of $10,000 older sprinters squares off at six and one-half furlongs in the eighth race.  Top Brass beat a $20,000 field here on New Year’s Eve and today returns for half that amount.  If he has one good one left, he’ll obviously be tough to deny; what we don’t know is whether Jacobson is trying to steal a purse or trying to unload him.  Finallygotabentley is also dropping off a local win, but in his case it the drop is just one level and this gelding was a voided claim two runs back, so Hollendorfer is doing the logical thing.  Airfoil is a first-off-the-claim for Knapp after missing in a photo in a similar spot earlier this month.  The old timer always has loved this main track and should fire another good shot from his cozy outside post under Prat.  Let’s include all three in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.

 

 ​RACE 9: Post 4:42 PT.  Grade:  C

Use: 2-Salsita; 3-Miss Boom Boom

Forecast: Salsita plummets to the $20,000 claiming level after winning for $40,000 at Del Mar in early November, not exactly a healthy pattern.  There’s no value here but she certainly can win with anything close to her best.  Miss Boom Boom, first off the claim for O’Neill, takes the blinkers off while moving down a notch in her first outing since mid-November.  This is another pattern that hardly inspires confidence but, like Salsita, she’s more than good enough to win at this level if she’s feeling good.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but this isn’t a race that we’re planning to get involved in.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, Jan. 21, 2018

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