Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 3, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.


Sunday, June 3, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Lexington Grace; 5-Travieza

Forecast:  Travieza has rising numbers and looks like the logical top pick, but we have doubts that she really wants to run this far.  She had no excuse when lacking punch two races back over this course and distance, though the race has proven to be productive and the speed figure was solid.  Lexington Grace looks like the most dangerous of the closers but her numbers are okay, nothing more.  In a race that might be best left alone, the two listed above should be used in rolling exotic play in addition to anything else you’d like to toss in.


​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Rockantharos; 4-Ballerine Headline

Forecast:  Ballerina Headline is a Bay Area invader now in the Metz barn following an $8,000 claim, and while she looks a tad cheap on paper her speed figures match up just fine at this level.  She’s been primarily a turf/synthetic runner during her career, but the last time she competed on conventional dirt she won by almost seven lengths.  We expect her to be doing her best work from off the pace under Bejarano.  Rockantharos is another late-running type; she’s hit the board in four of her last five starts and and two of her three wins have come over this main track.  The low percentage connections should keep the price square.


​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 3-Occam’s Razor

Forecast:  Occam’s Razor has done some very good work in the morning for O’Neill and looks cranked up and ready to win at first asking in this maiden special weight sprint for California-bred juveniles.  The others in here simply don’t inspire, so let’s make this son of Square Eddie a straight play and strong rolling exotic single at probably a lower price than his 9/5 morning line.


​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  1-Pantsonfire; 2-Queen Blossom; 4-Plein Air

Forecast: Let’s go three-deep in the fourth race, the listed Possibly Perfect Stakes for fillies and mares over 10 furlongs on turf.  Plein Air failed to reproduce her excellent U.S. debut win in the Astra Stakes when she weakened under pressure and wound up fifth at odds-on in the Santa Barbara Stakes in late April.  She can do better, especially if handed the front end without undue pressure.  A winner of eight of 12 career starts, the Irish-bred mare switches to Smith and should fire her best shot.  Queen Blossom just upset a similar field when winning the Santa Barbara at 9-1; she has a quarter of a mile less to work with today but should be dangerous from off the pace once again.  Pantsonfire, third in the Santa Barbara, lands the good rail and switches to Desormeaux.  All three of her career wins have come over the local lawn and her recent numbers put her right there.


​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Mobou; 5-Mr Paytience; 6-Calder Vale

Forecast:  This wide open juvenile sprint probably requires a spread in rolling exotic play; we’ll try to get by using three but you may find the need to go deeper.  Mr Paytience brought $90,000 at the OBS March sale where he breezed nicely, and his San Luis Rey Downs work tab, which includes a bullet gate work last month, provides further indication that he has some ability.  Mobou, a son of Uncle Mo which brought $390,000 as a yearling, hails from a barn that rarely wins with debut runners, and the rail post does him no help, but in an open affair he’s probably worth tossing in.  Calder Vale has the benefit of a prior run – a moderate third after flashing good early speed – and has every right to build on that outing today.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Izzys Express; 7-California Breeze; 9-Sweet Treat

Forecast:  California Breeze has decent recent form and this return to the maiden $20,000 ranks might prove to be the winning move.  A little will go a very long way in this modest affair for fillies and mares.  Sweet Treat stretches out again after a couple of solid sprint preps off a layoff, so a forward move is likely.  She’s two-turned well on this track in the past and must be considered a major player.  Izzys Express drops sharply in class and switches to the main track for the first time.  She lands Bejarano and fits on figures, so the daughter of Coil is a “must use.”


​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Unapologetic; 3-Aventador; 4-Acker

Forecast:  This entry-level allowance turf marathon has several possibilities; we’ve got it down to three but you may feel the need to go a bit deeper.  Acker is in good form with rising speed figures, likes this turf course, and should have no trouble staying the trip.  Unapologetic drops in class and has won at a mile and three-eighths, so he’s a major contender off his best effort.  Avendator ran very well two races back but couldn’t handle the dirt and was eased in a non-effort last month.  Back on the lawn today, the Metz-trained gelding has a long shot chance and is worth including on a ticket or two.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 1-Spiced Perfection; 2-Inland Empire; 3-Pulpit Rider

Forecast:  Spiced Perfection earned a career top number when winning the Evening Jewel Stakes in April over seven furlongs and she’s run well two-turning in the past so this stretch out to a mile should be well within her range.  Talamo likely will have her on or near the lead throughout.  Pulpit Rider is fresh from a nice stakes win up north on turf, but she can handle dirt as well and in fact is a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main strip.  She has a good stalking style and strong, consistent speed figures.  Inland Empire seems better on dirt and might be a late threat.  She’ll be a big number and probably should be considered as a saver, at least.


RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 9-Miss Ricochet

Forecast:  Miss Ricochet appeared to be dead short in her comeback when weakening late to wind up off the board as the 4/5 favorite in late April.  With the benefit of a recent run under her belt, the daughter of Colonel John should be much tighter today, and the switch to the Hillside turf course may be a plus as well.  Her best form from last year is good enough to beat this field, so let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 3, 2018

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