Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 17, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Sunday, June 17, 2018

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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 2-Girl Downstairs; 4-Proud ‘n’ Ready; 5-Gone to Bali

Forecast:  The opener is a stronger than par race for restricted $32,000 claiming fillies and mares.  Gone to Bali, in her second start off a layoff for Mullins, stretches out after a useful sprint prep and looks quick enough to make the running and keep on going.  She’s reunited with her “win” rider Baze and should have every chance in a field without a whole lot of early speed.  This is the first time she’s appeared in a claimer since breaking her maiden in December of 2015 and she’ll greatly appreciate the class relief.  Girl Downstairs remains above her claiming level in a sign of confidence by Ellis and is stretching out to her preferred trip after a couple of speed sharpeners down the hill.  A genuine and consistent mare, the daughter of A. P. Warrior has won under Nakatani in the past, lands the good rail, and should settle into a comfortable ground-saving, second flight trip.  Proud ‘n’ Ready, first off the claim for Morey (strong 24% with this angle), came against the grain when rallying to be third vs. softer over this course and distance last month and is eligible to improve for her new connections.  She, too, gains her “win” rider Prat, who was aboard in her last score, last summer at Del Mar.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Master Ruler; 4-Nova

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the second race, a modest affair that should boil down to Master Ruler and Nova.  The former earned a career top speed figure when fourth vs. maiden $50,000 foes last time out and this drop to $20,000 could be the winning maneuver.  Nova flashed speed for a half before fading vs. tougher; he’s likely to hang around for awhile longer against this group.  We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Master Ruler on top.

​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Impression; 2-Alfareed; 5-Seventyone

Forecast: A little will go a very long way in this downhill turf dash for older maiden claimers.  The known element isn’t much, so let’s try a fresh face.  Seventyone has shown enough in the morning to indicate some ability for a barn whose first-timers often run better than they work.  The son of Street Boss has the look of a live item.  Alfareed has competitive figures and is likely to improve with the drop from maiden special weight to maiden $50,000 for the hot O’Neill stable.  Impression is a 10-race maiden but has hit the board eight straight times, so he figures to win one eventually.   He sports two key angles – the route to sprint play and blinkers off – so we’ll include him as well, rail and all.

 

​​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Awesome Blend; 4-Call Ended; 6-War in the West

Forecast: It certainly wasn’t easily locating a top pick in this woefully weak bottom-level maiden claimer.  We settled on War in the West because he’s dropping in class, has only had two starts, and is trying dirt for the first time, so maybe there’s a reason to expect improvement.  Numbers-wise he’s a fit, but of course there’s no guarantee that his turf figures will transfer to the main track.  Gaines has two entrants and both have credentials to act with this group.  Awesome Blend was beaten a pole in his only start in the Midwest but walked out of the gate and caught a wet track, so he’s worth another look.  Maybe he can run a bit, maybe he can’t, who knows?  Call Ended shows up at the bottom and has a turf race two back that wasn’t bad.  Spread as deep as you can afford to in an inscrutable affair.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Little Scotty; 3-Lookie Loo

Forecast:  Little Scotty has become a different horse since switching to dirt, though the easy front-running trips he enjoyed in his last two wins may have flattered him.  He’ll face more pressure today, so he still has something to prove but on numbers he’s a very strong player.  Lookie Loo won a first-level allowance race in game style over a wet fast track in early March, has been away since, but the works – including a bullet six furlong move May 28 – should have him plenty fit.  He’s a lightly raced son of Candy Ride and likely will continue to improve with experience and maturity.  These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play.

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Ashleyluvssugar; 3-Arms Runner; 6-Isotherm

Forecast: This is a deep and contentious allowance race that strongly resembles a graded stakes.  Ashleyluvssugar flew home but was too late when beaten just a half-length in the Crystal Water Stakes over this course and distance last month. He’ll be fitter and sharper today and based on past class deserves top billing.  Arms Runner finished eighth but was beaten nly three lengths in the Shoemaker Mile-G1 in late April while earning a number that makes him a major contender.  He has more early speed than he’s been asked to show lately but in a field without much zip he could find himself as a pace presser if let run out of the gate.  Isotherm was a non-threatening third in the recent San Simeon Stakes while finding the Hillside course a bit too sharp.  He stretches out to a mile today and his best form puts him in the thick of it.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: X

Single: 2-Peaked

Forecast: Bay area invader Peaked drops to her lowest level ever while making her first start on dirt.  Her numbers on synthetic and turf beats this field, but she’s just 2-for-19 overall so perhaps she’s not one to trust.  It’s her, or anybody, so we can make her a no-value rolling exotic single and hope for the best or just pass the race.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 2-Tiz a Billy; 6-B Squared; 7-Bombard

Forecast:  Here’s another grass grab bag, the Siren Lure Stakes that offers several possibilities.  Tiz a Billy has been away for almost a year, so he has a right to be rusty, but off his best effort the son of Tizway is a major contender and his workouts at Los Alamitos indicate fitness.  All three of his career wins have come over this course and distance.  B Squared is dangerous at any trip and is excellent form.  Both of his previous efforts over the Hillside course were quite good.  Bombard looked good winning over this course in his first outing in 11 months recently and while his speed figure will need to be boosted just a bit he could have it in him in what will be only his ninth career start.

 

RACE 9: Post 5:00 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Varanasi; 4-Suspicious Spouse

Forecast:  Varanasi finished a distant third in her debut in a hot race at Del Mar last July and then disappeared.  She returns for Mandella (good stats with comebackers) with a solid series of works and gets Prat.  She looks very live.  Suspicious Spouse similarly is launching a comeback after having an outing last fall at Santa Anita.  She flashed speed before weakening in that race and seems highly likely to be a better type this time around for Miller.  We’ll prefer Varanasi on top but use both in our rolling exotics.

 

RACE 10: Post 5:30 PT.  GRADE B

Use: 2-Mo See Cal; 6-Red Shelby

Forecast: Red Shelby projects as the controlling speed in this restricted (Nw-2) $25,000 claiming downhill turf sprint.  She gets a break in the weights with the switch to good bug boy Figueroa and may not have to go a sub 22 seconds opening quarter today.  Mo See Cal is exiting by far the best race, turns back in trip, and has numbers that can win.  She has a prior win over the local lawn and the proper style to be effective over this course.  We’ll try to get by using just these two.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Sunday, June 17, 2018

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