Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, May 10, 2018

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, May 10, 2018

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-Jill Madden; 6-Just Bookin

Forecast:  All six of the runners entered in today’s opener exit the same race.  Just Bookin, who just missed by a nose to Fruity, makes what must be considered a favorable barn change in her first off the claim for Miyadi, though she’s picking up nine pounds.  Jill Madden, third in that April 20 event, lands the good rail and should enjoy a pace-pressing, ground-saving trip.  The winner should be one of these two.  Or not.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Chickatini; 5-Hottalabamba

Forecast: Chickatini may be the controlling speed from the rail, and with a repeat of her last outing – a nice runner-up effort in a similar maiden two-turn affair for fillies and mares – the daughter of Bernardini should be able to earn her diploma.  She has a healthy work pattern since raced and switches to Prat.  Hottalabamba has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle for Baffert (a powerful 32% with this maneuver) and will likely draft into an ideal pace-pressing position outside and have every chance.  Both should be include in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 3-Winner’s Dream; 4-Quiet No More

Forecast:  The first leg of the Pick-6 sequence drew just five starters; we’ll try to survive and advance using just two.  Winner’s Dream returns to her claim level for Aguirre and is back on the main track, conditions that saw her finish a strong third two races back despite encountering a bit of trouble.  She should have no such issue today, so we’ll put her on top.  Quiet No More won a restricted (Nw-2) $12,500 affair over this track and distance last month while earning a speed figure that makes her a solid fit right back despite the class hike.

 

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use:  2-True Valor; 3-Well Measured

Forecast: Well Measured is a first-off-the-claim for Ellis and drops a notch for the money run after weakening as the favorite vs. a bit tougher company last month.  He should have a fairly easy time of it on or near a soft pace.  True Valor drops to his lowest level ever and is reunited with Bejarano, who has gotten good run out of him in the past.  The son of Yes It’s True always has been partial to the Santa Anita main track and seems primed for a big effort while turning back from a mile.  We should be able to get past this race using just these two.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B+

Single: 8-All of a Sudden

Forecast:  All of a Sudden has much in her favor in this first-level state-bred allowance sprint down the Hillside course.  The daughter of Grazen makes her second start off a layoff and should be fitter and sharper following a third place effort vs. similar over this course and distance last month.  She didn’t break well in that race; today she goes from the rail to the outside and should settle into an idea pace-stalking position.  Let’s make her a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: X

Single: 4-Misty Slew

Forecast:  Misty Slew is an 11-race maiden and not one to trust, but she’s never gotten an easier chance than today in this below par bottom-rung maiden claiming miler for older fillies and mares.  In the money in her last pair and with a decided edge in speed figures, the Belvoir-trained daughter of Algorithms switches to Prat and projects to be a short price favorite, perhaps lower than her morning line of 8/5.  Let’s make her a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use:  4-Popular Kid; 5-Aventador; 8-The All Button

Forecast:  Aventador ran much better than the line will show when second vs. $25,000 open claimers last month; today he moves up to $35,000 but is facing a restricted field, so he’s really not tackling a tougher bunch.  The veteran gelding has good tactical speed and, hopefully, will be allowed to show it.  The main concern is the switch to the main track (though he’s won on dirt in the past), so if he handles the surface, the Metz-trained French-bred can pull off a surprise at 8-1 on the morning line.  Both Popular Kid and The All Button fit nicely on figurers (the latter has been away for 11 months but has a solid foundation of works for Spawr) and are worth including in rolling exotic play.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B+

Single: 8-Clearly Gone

Forecast: Clearly Gone makes a major jockey switch to Prat, and with only four prior starts has room for improvement that most of the others don’t have.  Fourth vs. similar over this course last month while earning a career-top speed figure, the daughter of Unusual Heat seems more than capable of producing the last run.  At 7/2 on the morning line she’s a straight play and rolling exotic single.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies for Thursday, May 10, 2018

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