The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players. The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play. Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.
The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
Top selection indicated in bold-face.
A=Highest degree of confidence.
C=Least preferred, or pass.
X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.
Friday, October 20, 2017
RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Cozmic One; 4-Acker; 8-Icy Street
Forecast: The Friday opener is a nine furlong maiden turf event with several possibilities. We’ll use three but not with any degree of confidence. Icy Street probably won’t have to improve much off his narrow second place defeat in a similar spot at Del Mar in mid-August in what was just his third career start to earn his diploma today. The Sadler-trained colt switches to Van Dyke, gets an extra furlong to work with, and looks slightly the best of the deep closers. Acker was given too much to do so despite finishing full of run couldn’t quite make up the needed ground when third in a high-priced maiden claimer in his first try on turf. Freshened since that late August race and training steadily in the interim, the Mandella-trained colt tackles tougher today but has plenty of room for further improvement. Zenyatta’s first foal Cozmic One still is trying to break his maiden at age five but both of his turf races were fairly good and he should be heard from in the final furlong.
RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: X
Single: 3-Jenna’s Faith
Forecast: Jenna’s Faith drops a notch in her first start since being claimed by Ellis and catches a modest field in this six furlong restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Both of her wins came over this Santa Anita main track and she appears primed and ready to return to the winner’s circle following a series of healthy recent workouts. She has consistently earned better than par speed figures for this level and looks very much like a logical rolling exotic single, though at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower the daughter of Idiot Proof probably won’t offer much wagering value in the straight pool.
RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Tilly’s Lilly; 2-Swirling
Forecast: Tilly’s Lilly rolled to two victories in Florida and brings her spotless record to California while attempting to continue her winning ways while facing much stiffer competition. On pure numbers she fits just fine on this circuit and looks likely to extend her perfect streak for the high percentage Jonathan Thomas stable. With Prat taking the call, the daughter of Distorted Humor likely will be a strong favorite. We’ll also include in our rolling exotics Swirling, another unbeaten (in two starts) filly with speed figures that fit. A winner over this course and distance in June, she was even more impressive when running past a first-level allowance field at Del Mar with a furious late kick. She’s worked well since, retains Roman, and could very well be this good.
RACE 4: Post: 2:29 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Mister Mojo; 4-Dominant Dan; 7-Psychedelicat
Forecast: High-priced older maiden claimers sprint five and one-half furlongs in the fourth race. Psychedelicat is a nine-race maiden and perhaps not one to trust, but he drops to his lowest level ever, has several better than par speed figures for this league, and may have finally found his friends. Dominant Dan represents stranger danger from Los Alamitos for Peter Miller barn. The works look pretty solid for a stable that boasts powerful stats with debut runners. Mister Mojo has some zip that could him make him dangerous at this abbreviated sprint trip. He was overmatched in straight maiden company in his first two starts but should stick much better against this group.
RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: X
Single: 7-Chay Up and Away
Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers meet in the fifth race, a five and one-half furlong sprint. Chay Up and Away is 4/5 on the morning line and on pure form looks it. The daughter of Sway Away holds a distinct edge in the speed figure department and adds blinkers for the first time. The only concern is the class drop from maiden $50,000 to the $20,000 level despite hitting the board in her first two starts in fairly decent style. This could be considered a suspicious class drop, especially by a low percentage outfit, but if she has one good one left she’ll handle this task as a no-value rolling exotic single.
RACE 6: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Friendly Outthedor; 3-Saltini; 9-Shaky Alibi
Forecast: The sixth race is a split of today’s opener, a nine furlong maiden special weight turf event. Saltini was the third nose on the wire in a similar affair at Del Mar in mid-August in what was his first outing in more than a year. If the Mandella-trained son of Bernardini can produce even the slightest of forward moves, he’ll be tough to beat in a competitive affair. Friendly Outthedor ran quite well on dirt at Los Alamitos in his debut last month, finishing second with a strong speed figure, and if he can duplicate that performance under these conditions the Eurton-trained gelding should be in the thick of it throughout. We’ll also use the second-time starter Shaky Alibi, nosed out in his debut over five furlongs on grass at Del Mar last month. Bejarano stays aboard and though the leap from an abbreviated sprint to today’s mile and one eighth distance is a bit steep, this colt seems likely to improve with distance and experience.
RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Psycho Dar; 4-Axelrod; 6-Walk on Water
Forecast: We’ll pass the seventh race, a starter/optional/claiming miler for juveniles and triple the race in our rolling exotics. Axelrod set the pace in a middle distance Northern California stakes race before weakening late while earning a speed figure that makes him a strong fit at this level. The main concern is that he broke his maiden in gate-to-wire fashion two races back and looks to be a need-the-lead type with other speed to contend with here. Psycho Dar, a sprinter stretching out, is a fast sort that seems likely to bust to the front, and in a field lacking in effective closers he might establish control and never look back. Walk on Water has decent form up north and makes his first start as a gelding. He’s another stretching out for the first time and will contribute to the pressure up front.
RACE 8: Post 4:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Causeforcommotion; 6-Scandal; 7-Sunday Prophet
Forecast: The finale is a grass grab bag at a mile for older maiden fillies and mares. Sunday Prophet flashed some promise in her debut sprinting at Del Mar in mid-August when a decent runner-up,and today stretches out to what should be a suitable distance. She switches to Nakatani and could inherit the role as the controlling speed. Scandal and Causeforcommotion are long-time maidens that are hard to trust, but both have races that make them contenders and numbers that can win. Let’s try to survive using these three and then have a few extra tickets keying Sunday Prophet on top.