Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Oct. 19, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.



Thursday, October 19, 2017

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Jill Madden; 3-Honor Maker

Forecast: Honor Maker crushed a lesser field by more than 11 lengths over this track and distance three weeks ago and looks tough on the raise with anything close to that performance today.  She’s 9/5 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower.  Jill Madden, first or second in five of seven career starts over the Santa Anita main track, tossed in a clunker when overmatched at Los Alamitos last time out but is realistically spotted today and should bounce back.  We expect the winner will be one of these two, with Honor Maker getting the edge on top.


​​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 2-Swiss Skimmer; 3-Desert Madam; 6-Sheswildnfree

Forecast: Desert Madam plummets in class and is suspect on condition, but clearly is much the best on paper and will beat this field if she has one good one left.  At 6/5 on morning line she certainly offers no wagering value.  Swiss Skimmer looked good beating an $8,000 field at Los Alamitos last time out but she rarely follows a win with another good performance.  Though not one to trust, she might be worth including on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.  Sheswildnfree, first or second in six of nine career starts at Santa Anita, was in too tough when a non-threatening third in a starter’s allowance race at Los Alamitos last month but should go better in this league and could be dangerous from off the pace if a legitimate pace materializes.  In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, all three should be included in rolling exotic play.


​​​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Quinn Murphy; 2-Lookinforadanger

Forecast: Lookinforadanger exits a pair of much tougher starter’s allowance races and drops for the money run in this $25,000 restricted (nw-2) claimer for fillies and mares over a mile on turf.  While she’s won over this course in the past, the daughter of Pleasantly Perfect is pretty much a need-the-lead type could be vulnerable due to the presence of the sprinter-stretching-out Sapodilla.  Quinn Murphy is clearly the most dangerous of the closers and with some help up front should be hard to contain in the final furlong.  Let’s use both in our rolling exotics and then press with extra tickets keying Quinn Murphy on top.


RACE 4: Post 2:29 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 4-Bragging Rights; 8-Miss Pretty; 9-Streak of Light

Forecast: Maiden claiming state-bred juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs in the fourth race.  Streak of Light lands the cozy outside post, adds blinkers, and surfaces for a tag after nibbling vs. straight maidens in her first three career starts.  She appears the best of the known element but must worry about the Baffert first-timer, Bragging Rights, a Street Boss filly that brought $80,000 at auction as a yearling last year.  The fact that she’s debuting for a tag indicates her connections aren’t particularly high on her, and the work tab doesn’t inspire, but she’s unexposed in a weak spot so we’ll consider her a contender.  Miss Pretty is slow on speed figures but at least hit the board in her most recent outing and may be able to stick around for a while against this group.


​​​RACE 5: Post 3:02 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Eskimo Roses; 3-Scrambled; 8-Fengari

Forecast: Eskimo Roses exits a pair of pretty tough maiden sprints at Del Mar while managing to finish in the frame in both starts; if he can transfer that main track form to the Hillside Turf Course the Ruis-trained gelding could be tough to beat, rail and all.  The son of Eskendereya projects to establish the pace against this group, unless one of the first-timers shows zip that we’re not anticipating.  One of those dangerous newcomers is Scrambled, a son of Tapit from the D’Amato barn.  The workouts at San Luis Rey Downs look fairly decent and maidens from this stable often run a bit better than their morning activity might lead you to believe.  Fengari, a $170,000 two-year-old in training purchase by Artie Schiller, has been preparing for his debut with a series of drills over the Santa Anita training track, including a bullet five furlong move earlier this month.  He’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.


​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Run for Retts; 4-Avicii; 7-Just a Little Hope

Forecast: Avicii joins the Billy Morey barn after being haltered for $40,000 last month at Los Alamitos and reappears on the raise over a track and distance she’s been successful in the past.  The stable has solid stats with first-off-claim plays, so we’re expecting this veteran mare to fire her best shot in a fairly wide-open event.  Also, the daughter of City Zip is reunited with Prat, who has won on her twice in the past.  Run for Retts, in the money in five of six starts over the local main track, should enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip, and off here best effort the Miyadi-trained filly can be right there.  Just a Little Hope is a lightly raced, prototype late-running sprinter and moves up a notch following a deep closing score over this track and distance three weeks ago.  She retains Stevens, has speed figures that fit, but needs some help up front to be most effective, and the pace scenario doesn’t look to be in her favor.  We’ll toss her in on a ticket or two, but that’s all.


RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 3-How About Zero; 5-Winemenow; 10-Secret Thorn

Forecast: This is another tough Hillside Turf Course affair, this one for first-level state-bred fillies and mares.  Winemenow has a prior win over the course and the late-running style that should be effective in a race with suspect speed.  In the money in a pair of abbreviated turf sprints at Del Mar, she has an extra furlong and a half to work with today and seems capable of producing the last run under Prat.  Secret Thorn projects as the controlling speed, but this trip might be a tad out of her range.  However, she’s lightly-raced with rising speed figures, so we’ll definitely include her in our rolling exotics.  How About Zero, away since March, has worked steadily for her comeback and may be worth using on a few back-up tickets.  The O’Neill barn has been ice cold all meeting, but this daughter of Square Eddie should be heard from in the final furlong.


​​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 6-Royal F J; 7-Ajac; 8-Hawk’s Eyes

Forecast: This bottom-rung sprint for older horses looks treacherous, so tread lightly.  Royal F J, 10-year-olds with 101 lifetime outings, may not have a whole lot left in the tank but his past class could carry him through.  A non-threatening runner-up vs. $8,000 foes here last month, the Carava-trained gelding should be prominent throughout and have every chance against this very modest competition.  Ajac is re-equipped with blinkers while making his first start since early July for new trainer Polanco, and could easily fire a winning shot fresh.  Both of his career wins have come over the Santa Anita main track and the son of Benchmark has the kind of early speed that could allow him to shake loose early and get very brave late.  Hawk’s Eyes won a restricted claimer for this price at Los Alamitos last month and has won back-to-back races in the past, so we’ll consider him a major player and use him in our rolling exotics.






Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Thursday, Oct. 19, 2017

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