Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Friday, October 27, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Friday, October 27, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Jungle Warfare; 4-Erotic; 7-Inscom

Forecast: Inscom was more than five clear of the rest when nosed out over this course and distance in what was just his second career start, his first on turf, and his first two-turning last month.  The son of Distorted Humor will be very difficult to beat with a similar effort, hence his morning line of 6/5.  Jungle Warfare has been a bit of a disappointment but today tries turf for the first time (bred for it), is being re-equipped with blinkers, and should be a strong pace factor throughout.  Erotic lost a ton of ground from a poor post in his debut up north and seems certain to improve today.  At 10-1 on the morning line he’s probably worth including on a ticket or two in rolling exotic play.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-On the Right; 9-Zippy Groom

Forecast: Zippy Groom drops to a realistic level and should fit very nicely in this modest spot, though his extreme outside post is something of a concern.  At 5-1 on the morning line he offers a bit of value so we’ll put him on top.  On the Right lands the favorable rail in his his first start since being gelded and is also facing his easiest competition to date.  His only prior outing over the Santa Anita main track – his debut sprinting in June – produced his best speed figure.  Let’s try to survive in rolling exotic play using just these two.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Bolster; 7-Desert Law

Forecast: Desert Law is fast on numbers, lands the cozy outside post, and seems ready for a huge effort.  The Gaines-trained gelding probably will appreciate this drop back to six furlongs and should settle into an ideal stalking position, ready to pounce when ready.  Bolster seeks his third straight win but on pure figures he’ll have to produce a forward move.  The lightly-raced gelding should be part of the pace throughout and will get tested, but with Prat staying aboard he’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 1-Charming Ruler; 8-Masco Yodeler; 9-Craft Brew

Forecast: Maiden claiming juveniles meet over a mile in the fourth race, a difficult affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play.  Craft Brew is stuck way outside but drops to the bottom with better than par speed figures for this level.  If he can negotiate a decent trip, he can win, though at 2-1 on the morning line he doesn’t really offer a whole lot of value.  Masco Yodeler is another class dropper that should appreciate this level of competition; the Hollendorfer-trained son of Swift Yodeler will be making his first start as a gelding and projects to settle into a cozy pace stalking position.  Charming Ruler chased infinitely tougher foes in a pair of straight maiden sprints and today stretches out to a distance he’s bred to like.  From his good rail post, he seems certain to have every chance with a ground-saving trip.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 3:01 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 3-Lucy De; 6-Ginga

Forecast: Lucy De has the “blinkers off” angle that we like so much and the veteran mare is long overdue for a win.  Her recent form is solid, her numbers fit well at this level, and she should appreciate this stretch out to 10 furlongs.  Desormeaux will have her within range throughout.  Ginga has been chasing tougher without making much impact but on pure figures she’s a fit with these so we’ll toss her in as well.  Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Lucy De.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 3:32 PT. Grade: B+

Use: 6-Allianna; 9-Dream Tree

Forecast: Dream Tree has been quite impressive in the a.m. for Baffert, acting like a very fast filly.  The daughter of Uncle Mo brought $750,000 at the Fasig-Tipton March sale where she breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds.  Allianna, a $200,000 Timonium two-year-old in training purchase in May, has a series of solid works at San Luis Rey Downs for a clever outfit and seems plenty fit for a big effort first crack out of the box.  Miller hits with 20 percent of his first-timers and shows a flat-bet profit with the angle.  Both should be used in rolling exotic play but we’ll have extra tickets keying Dream Tree on top.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:03 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 1-Getoffmyback; 3-Donji

Forecast: Getoffmyback has won three of his last five outings and seems well-placed for another big try in this main track starter’s handicap.  The Miller-trained gelding likes to establish his own pace but can stalk if the situation demands; however, from his rail post the son of Good Journey looks likely to be the controlling speed.  In either case, he’s the one to beat.  Donji fits well on figures but always has lacked a winning punch (4-for-39 with 16 seconds and thirds).  We’ll use him on a ticket or two, but the main push will be on Getoffmyback.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:35 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-Langham; 9-Zipman

Forecast: Zipman has the proper style for this downhill turf course and speed figures that are better than par for the level.  With two good races behind him, including a runner-up effort at Los Alamitos in which he was more than six clear of the rest, the Baffert-trained colt seems ready to graduate and will offer excellent value at or near his morning line of 5/2.  Langham makes his first start as a gelding as well as his first sprinting.  He could be a late threat at a price and is worth using as a back-up in rolling exotic play.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Friday, October 27, 2017

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