Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Thursday, October 26, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST). For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Thursday, October 26, 2017

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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-You’re A Goat; 4-Ryder’s Starlight

Forecast: The new week begins with a turf miler for restricted $32,000 claiming fillies and mares. You’re A Goat shows up for a tag for the first time, adds blinkers, and has better than par numbers for this level. Unplaced in her first two U.S. appearances but realistically spotted today, the Blacker-trained filly looks capable of producing the last run. Ryder’s Starlight closed a gap down the hill to be third vs. open $25,000 sellers earlier this month and stretches out again while removing blinkers. She’s always been a fairly genuine sort; remains above her claim level in a sign of confidence, and should be heard from in the final furlong. We’ll try to get by using just these two with preference on top to You’re A Goat.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: C

Use: 1-True Valor; 4-Night’s Watch; 6-Kona Dreams

Forecast: We’ll go three deep in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the second race, a starter’s allowance main track mile affair for 3-year-olds. Kona Dreams earned a huge speed figure when beating a slightly lesser group in gate-to-wire style here two weeks ago and returns off short rest in quest of a repeat score. We’ll use him, but at 9/5 on the morning line in a field with other speed, the son of Midshipman might be vulnerable. True Valor, twice a winner in three starts over the Santa Anita main track, remains protected by O’Neill, who claimed him for $50,000 two races back. Questionable around two turns but projected to enjoy a good stalking, ground-saving trip, the Yes It’s True colt should have every chance with numbers that make him a major player. Night’s Watch is a first-time Lasix user in his 13th career start and is another with good prior form over the local dirt surface, so we’ll toss him in as well.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Raven Creek; 9-Hardbook

Forecast: Raven Creek has been in the frame in all three starts and seems ready to win, assuming he can transfer his main track form to turf. With More Than Ready on the bottom of his pedigree, the son of Old Fashion has a right to move up on the lawn. Hardboot is a debuting Lucky Pulpit colt with a series of solid works at San Luis Rey Downs. He should be plenty fit and is worth including in rolling exotic play at or near his morning line of 8-1.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT. Grade:

Use: 2-Forthenineteen; 6-Pam’s Joy

Forecast: Bottom-rung claiming fillies and mares sprint five and one-half furlongs in the fourth race that appears to have two main players. Forthenineteen drops to her lowest level ever, gets a break in the weights with the switch to bug boy Roman, and shows a nice recent four furlong workout since her most recent outing. She’ll never get an easier chance. Pam’s Joy is winless in six starts at Santa Anita but her recent Los Alamitos form is quite good and she projects to be the controlling speed. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics while preferring Forthenineteen on top.

 

​RACE 5: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 2-Trapper Peak; 5-Snazzy Dresser; 7-Royal Bar

Forecast: The fifth race appears on paper to be a below par race for maiden $50,000 claiming juveniles, at least among the known element. It’ll be interesting to see if any of the newcomers receives strong support on the tote. Royal Bar, third in both of his outings to date but with rising speed figures, should produce another forward move today and rates a slight edge on top. Snazzy Dresser, a decent runner-up in his debut vs. softer, should improve, though based strictly on speed figures he’ll have to. We’ll also toss in the Ruis-trained first-timer Trapper Peak, a son of Trappe Shot with an okay work tab. The barn has an excellent record with debut runners, and this gelding really won’t have to be any world-beater to be competitive.

 

​​​RACE 6: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: B

Use: 1-Doc Curllin; 2-Law Abidin Citizen; 3-Tribal Fighter

Forecast: This is a stronger than par second level allowance downhill turf sprint that has several contenders. We’ll use three and hope to get by. Tribal Fighter was a clever winner over this course and distance in March and should be ready for a major effort in his first off the bench for Baltas. The Tribal Rule gelding likes to settle early and produce a good late kick and Nakatani, who won him two races back, fits him perfectly. Law Abidin Citizen is a perfect one-for-one on turf (and over this course), having won under these conditions when last seen seven months ago. The barn has very good stats with layoff runners and the work tab seems healthy, so this gelded son of Twirling Candy should fire a big shot. Doc Curlin, yet another with prior winning form over this tricky turf layout (he’s two-for-three), can really turn it on late, and with good racing luck and a decent pace to chase, the Hess-trained gelding will be dangerous in the final furlong.

​​RACE 7: Post 4:00 PT.  Grade: C+

Use: 2-Midnight Summer; 3-Empress of Lov

Forecast: Empress of Lov seems as good as any in this starter/optional claiming sprint for juvenile fillies. The daughter of Empire Way was an okay third in a similar affair earlier this month after being overmatched in three straight stakes appearances, and this softer field should be within her range. Midnight Summer should be part of the early pace, and if she can shake loose early she might get brave late. Of the two we’ll prefer Empress of Lov on top but this race is a bit treacherous, so tread lightly.

​​​​RACE 8: Post 4:30 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 2-Falcone; 8-Charlie Cowden

Forecast: The finale is an expensive maiden claiming turf miler for juveniles and looks fairly competitive. Falcone missed by a neck vs. straight maiden company up north and not much more will be needed today. Drawn comfortably inside, the son of Quality Road should draft into a nice, ground-saving, second flight positioned and have every chance. Charlie Cowden is worth using in rolling exotic play as well; the son of Paddy O’Prado should move up on turf after finishing willingly to be second in his dirt sprint debut at Del Mar in late August. Nakatani stays aboard and should have this Yakteen-trained colt moving well in the final furlong.

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Thursday, October 26, 2017

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