Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 28, 2017

The selections contained within are geared to rolling exotic players.  The basic strategy is to isolate those horses that should be included in rolling daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and pick-6.

​It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the exact rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis.  Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, the reader is encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

​Unless otherwise noted, all horses listed in the analysis should be used in rolling exotic play.   Usually there will no more than three horses listed; occasionally, Jeff will go 4-deep in his rolling exotic play and on a very rare occasion he will recommend a “buy the race” strategy.

The selections are available every racing day after 9 a.m. (PST).  For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Top selection indicated in bold-face.  

A=Highest degree of confidence.

B=Solid Play.

C=Least preferred, or pass.

X=likely winner but odds will be too short to play.

SANTA ANITA

Saturday, October 28, 2017

​RACE 1: Post 12:15 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 1-Pistol Packin Rose; 7-Cynthiana

Forecast: The Saturday 11-race program begins with a first-level allowance turf affair over nine furlongs restricted to 3-year-old fillies.  Pistol Packin Rose missed as the favorite when third, beaten less than a length, in a similar affair earlier this month.  Today she gets an extra furlong to work with and should have every chance with a stalking, ground-saving trip from her inside draw.  Cynthiana, second in the same race ‘Rose exits, switches to Bejarano and appears to be the most dangerous of the closers.  We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play using just these two.

 

​​RACE 2: Post 12:45 PT. Grade: B-

Use: 2-Desert Domination; 5-Midnight Run; 7-Lipster

Forecast: Desert Domination drops a notch in his first start since being gelded and the Miller-trained juvenile appears to have found a field he can handle.  Three nice recent workouts at San Luis Rey Downs should have him on edge.  Midnight Run drops again trying to find his proper level and also turns back from an unsuccessful route try.  He’s also reunited with Desormeaux, under whom he ran his best race (in his debut) while earning a speed figure good enough to win at this level.  Lipster is another that fits on numbers and this drop to maiden $30,000 could make the winning difference, his low percentage barn notwithstanding.  We’ll put Desert Domination on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​​RACE 3: Post 1:15 PT. Grade: C+

Use: 6-Dramatic Victory; 10-Lori’s Attitude; 11-Prieta

Forecast: Lori’s Attitude really isn’t one to trust – she’s a seven-race maiden with four of the losses as the favorite – but she catches a field that her best should handle.  Dramatic Victory is a first-timer bred for turf (Artie Schiller) and the Hess-Desormeaux team always must be respected.  The works aren’t bad, so we’ll throw her in.  Prieta was well-backed in her debut but didn’t show a whole lot; we’ll give her another chance under the assumption that she’s better than shown and that she’ll enjoy the switch to turf.

​​​RACE 4: Post: 1:45 PT. Grade: B

Use: 4-Tisdale; 5-Sense of Glory

Forecast: Tisdale, first off the claim for Hess, missed as the choice at Los Alamitos last month but after a bit of freshening returns at the same price ($12,500), switches to bug boy Roman, and can beat this field with a repeat of his race before last.  He’s worth his morning line (3-1) if you can get it.  Sense of Glory has won twice over the Santa Anita main track and is often tough to catch if he can shake loose early without undue pressure, though the presence of speed-type Jonny’s Choice makes that scenario problematic.  We’ll have a ticket or two with him as saver but the main push will be on Tisdale.

 

​​RACE 5: Post 2:18 PT. Grade: B

Use: 3-Irish Freedom; 4-Hoppertunity

Forecast: Baffert holds the aces here with the proven classer Hoppertunity and the young, untested, but highly-promising Irish Freedom.  Hoppertunity makes his first start since returning from Dubai last spring and is using this race as a prep for the much more valuable Clark Handicap next month at Churchill Downs.  However, he’s trained well enough to be fit and ready and is the deserved favorite.  ‘Freedom earned a giant speed figure winning a first level allowance race at Del Mar in mid-August and with only slight improvement today should be in competitive despite the class hike.

 

​​​​RACE 6: Post 2:49 PT. Grade: B

Use: 6-Joe’sgoldenholiday; 11-Painting Corners

Forecast: This is a stronger than par downhill turf dash for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that boils down to two main players.  Joe’sgoldenholiday may rate a very slight edge on top; the lightly-raced daughter of Harlan’s Holiday has won over the Santa Anita lawn two-turning but may be most effective as a late-running sprinter.  She gets ideal conditions today and retains Bejarano, who knows her well.  Painting Corners should be the controlling speed and is a perfect two-for-two over this course.  From her cozy outside post, the Miller-trained filly will be hard to catch if she’s not pressured early.

 

​​​RACE 7: Post 3:19 PT.  Grade: B-

Single: 8-What’s Inside

Forecast: What’s Inside ran reasonably well in his debut – a runner-up effort at Los Alamitos with a moderate number – and should produce a significant forward move today with that effort behind him.  In a lackluster maiden claiming sprint for juveniles, he may be something in a nothing race but at 2-1 on the morning line that’s not a whole lot we can do with him, other than to use the Puype-trained son of Tapizar as a no-value rolling exotic single.

 

​​​​​RACE 8: Post 3:49 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 4-He’s Stylish; 5-McKinzie; 6-Shivermetimbers

Forecast:  Shivermetimbers finished with interest in a promising debut while earning a very strong speed figure earlier this month and a similar effort today will be good enough unless there’s a hot newcomer in the field.  And there might be.  McKinzie is a first-timer in the Baffert barn that attracts Smith, who jumps off ‘timbers to ride the son of Street Sense, so we suspect this colt has plenty of talent.  He’s Stylish has several excellent workouts on his resume and is another newcomer that is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.  We’ll go three-deep but then press with Shivermetimbers in the straight pool.

 

 ​RACE 9: Post 4:19 PT.  Grade: B

Use: 4-Bowies Hero; 5-Just Howard; 6-Sharp Samurai

Forecast: Sharp Samurai has won four of his last five while moving to the head of the class among West Coast 3-year-old turf runners.  Though he won back-to-back stakes races at Del Mar, his career top speed figure actually was earned over the Santa Anita turf course when winning the Rainbow Stakes during the spring meeting.  Bowies Hero, third but beaten only a length behind Sharp Samurai in the Del Mar Derby, switches to Desormeaux and seems the most dangerous of the closers.  On his best day, the son of Artie Schiller can win.  Just Howard is a sharp and improving eastern invader from the Motion barn with numbers that fit and excellent tactical speed that assures an ideal pace-stalking, trouble-free trip.  We’ll prefer Sharp Samurai on top but use all three in our rolling exotics.

 

​RACE 10: Post 4:49 PT.  Grade: B-

Use: 8-La Galy; 10-Besides the Point

Forecast: Besides the Point earned a career top number when beating a restricted field here earlier this month and seems well-spotted to repeat from a cozy outside post.  This extended sprint distance is ideal for her style and her record over the Santa Anita main track – three wins in five starts – truly makes her a horse for course.  La Galy has been chasing tougher while earning speed figures that fit very well against this group.  At 6-1 on the morning line, she’s worth including at least as a back-up.

 

RACE 11: Post 5:19 PT.  Grade: B+

Use: 8-Well Developed; 9-Copper Wind

Forecast:  Well Developed tipped his hand in a promising debut at Del Mar when lagging to the head of the lane and then finishing strongly to be third while earning an excellent number.  Any kind of improvement today makes him hard to beat.  Copper Wind closed a big gap in a downhill turf sprint in his debut earlier this month and seems very likely to step forward with that effort behind him and the stretch out in trip.  We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then press with a few extra tickets keying Well Developed on top.

 

 

Jeff Siegel’s Blog: Wagering Strategies for Saturday, October 28, 2017

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