While Songbird (#1, 6-5) has never run as fast as Stellar Wind or Beholder, it would be foolish to discount the chances of an undefeated filly whose never been asked for her best. She will need her best to beat two outstanding horses and this should be the most exciting race on the Breeders' Cup card.
Even though she has lost three races in a row, Beholder (#8, 5-2) has hardly lost a step. It seems more like Stellar Wind (#5, 5-2) is getting really really good rather than Beholder slipping. With that being said, Beholder is in a tough spot pace wise in this race. If she goes with Songbird on the lead early, then Stellar Wind is good enough to run them both down. If she sits off of a lonely Songbird on the lead, then no one is beating Songbird. With that being said, Beholder looks as if she will finish third with Stellar Wind and Songbird battling for the win. This is not the race to try to get cute with a longshot. Even if Beholder is only third best, she is at least 5 lengths better than anything the East has to offer.
The only way to make money in this race is by hitting the trifecta and the superfecta without using multiple horses to do so. I will use both Songbird and Stellar Wind first and second, but only Beholder third and only Forever Unbridled (#6, 12-1) fourth. I'm a Chatterbox and Curalina will be too close to the pace to finish fourth, while Forever Unbridled will sit back and make one run.
1,5 / 1,5 / 8
1,5 / 1,5 / 8 / 6